Europa Conference League · resolved market
FK Crvena zvezda vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44ccdee1f13a6bf7f8986bf9425155c95494ade8cacaaf84f3363312e140b18a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Over | 3c | 8,301$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.03 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +224.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 75c | 2,160$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.26 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 28c | 1,270$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.51 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 22c | 1,250$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5995…3385backed Over | 7c | 810.4$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 34c | 506.06$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.06 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e7…fef1backed Over | 6c | 416.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 66c | 313.61$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.32 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 32c | 308.86$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.66 | 139 | 20.1%28 W · 111 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bf…345abacked Over | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +5.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under | 66c | 294.11$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -10.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c6…5004backed Over | 4c | 251.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Under | 63c | 243.24$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 63 | 63.5%40 W · 23 L | +6.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Under | 65c | 130$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 152 | 24.3%37 W · 115 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Under | 70c | 57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Over | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 132 | 56.8%75 W · 57 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…1a94backed Over | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Under | 65c | 53.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…921dbacked Under | 64c | 49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Under | 68c | 47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…5cddbacked Under | 65c | 37.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 29 | 86.2%25 W · 4 L | +6.1wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Over | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 52c | 19.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd485…871fbacked Under | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 69c | 15.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 3.5this page
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 1.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 2.5Under won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.