Europa Conference League · resolved market
FK Crvena zvezda vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d7e90f5fe10ab7bc2a90ee6269c2b7346d7cf7aa9429a871c62967cca008946
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,063
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 2,739$1,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,273.71 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 47c | 2,349$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 50c | 1,674$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.79 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 35c | 1,229$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.09 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…a795backed Under | 43c | 1,154$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.66 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabd6…ca90backed Over | 60c | 999$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bf…345abacked Over | 58c | 600$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +5.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc181…0992backed Over | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9bc…3498backed Over | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 57c | 472.68$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -10.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 41c | 463.75$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.33 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Under | 42c | 288$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.09 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under | 43c | 232.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.55 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe05b…0912backed Under | 43c | 174.42$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.42 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7c…e75cbacked Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 56c | 147.1$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.38 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Under | 45c | 131$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.05 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccc…dbcdbacked Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Over | 33c | 93.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 42c | 93.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f244backed Over | 56c | 79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…5ba4backed Over | 17c | 76.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -58%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e81dbacked Under | 45c | 75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x497e…1161backed Over | 21c | 64.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 34c | 58.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Under | 41c | 46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ea…2918backed Over | 47c | 42.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Over | 58c | 42.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0147…61c1backed Over | 57c | 39.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dac…f2e0backed Under | 44c | 38.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x597f…e9cfbacked Over | 55c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 69cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…9467backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3df…3e0cbacked Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5db0…73f1backed Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…2854backed Over | 58c | 33.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 41c | 30.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecd…b2c0backed Over | 55c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50be…bcb1backed Over | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ff…db1dbacked Over | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff9…46bbbacked Under | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97bf…b669backed Over | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7219…fcf7backed Over | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…2cb0backed Over | 55c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +51%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92bf…0297backed Over | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6162…e856backed Over | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa64c…34f2backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf6…c75bbacked Over | 64c | 18.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed Under | 57c | 18.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa15…95e3backed Under | 80c | 12.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.54 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.9wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 2.5this page
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 1.5Over won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 3.5Under won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.