Europa Conference League · resolved market
FK Crvena zvezda vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52726c3eb6a0ec009fe9ee1f1bc210329087c9e167a757865622ec186cf4f4fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7434…2ff4backed Over | 48c | 3,036$1,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,582.75 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 2,345$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.09 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 52c | 1,829$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.83 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 41c | 731.95$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.95 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 58c | 728.97$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.73 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 32c | 619.08$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.86 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 20c | 601.74$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.08 | 139 | 20.1%28 W · 111 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 79c | 182.85$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Under | 22c | 180$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…d72dbacked Over | 78c | 152.97$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…921dbacked Over | 79c | 118$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Over | 79c | 95.24$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ea…2918backed Under | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 34c | 94.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.12 | 146 | 41.1%60 W · 86 L | -14.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Under | 64c | 54.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 20c | 52.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 29c | 45.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb717…a67fbacked Over | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…95a8backed Over | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.22per pick | 66cpaid | +37%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x07eb…4b4cbacked Over | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa029…c912backed Over | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x995e…534cbacked Over | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 63c | 24.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…a1c4backed Over | 49c | 22.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…a05cbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 154 | 59.1%91 W · 63 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa15…95e3backed Under | 57c | 17.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.9wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…0c24backed Over | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…e639backed Over | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 72cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 1.5this page
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 2.5Under won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 3.5Under won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.