NHL · resolved market
Red Wings vs. Stars: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45023c3bf23f60d49e9482f539b39e186655ad14377927911a6b04aa613c0258
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,214 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 48c | 2,222$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,155.43 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb859…e244backed Over | 52c | 1,843$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.39 | 110 | 52.7%58 W · 52 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 53c | 520$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.57 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 399.4$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.52 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Over | 52c | 298.08$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24bc…1b77backed Over | 52c | 289.57$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 222.78$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.01 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 49c | 205$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 51c | 204$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.04 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 178.56$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.07 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed Under | 47c | 116.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.75 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -12.1wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -33%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 48c | 104.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 45c | 104.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 48c | 103.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2696…c031backed Over | 52c | 90.19$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Under | 56c | 88.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 56c | 66.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 68c | 62.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49a8…b182backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 56c | 37.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 44c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…0859backed Over | 53c | 27.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd1…da99backed Over | 47c | 24.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0112…4fe9backed Over | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Red Wings vs. Stars: O/U 5.5this page
- Red Wings vs. StarsStars won
- Red Wings vs. Stars: O/U 4.5Over won
- Red Wings vs. Stars: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)Red Wings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.