NHL · resolved market
Spread: Stars (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf798058338f19b5f6ab25c979f0a795f5569ab6dc7746a190639b6c6defe3df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Red Wingsof Stars, Red Wings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,513 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Red Wings | 59c | 3,999$2,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,621.81 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Stars | 41c | 2,084$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.44 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…3a5dbacked Stars | 41c | 951.22$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Stars | 40c | 373$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.2 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Red Wings | 48c | 309.36$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.4 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Stars | 38c | 233.4$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.16 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…99febacked Stars | 41c | 230$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.3 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Red Wings | 49c | 229.91$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.95 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…f879backed Stars | 49c | 204.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Stars | 40c | 199.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.65 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Stars | 40c | 180$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Stars | 40c | 171.24$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88bd…c088backed Red Wings | 60c | 165.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.06 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Red Wings | 59c | 145.11$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd71…6714backed Stars | 46c | 131.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Red Wings | 62c | 128.53$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Stars | 39c | 119.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Red Wings | 62c | 112.26$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.26 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Red Wings | 63c | 108.48$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.48 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Stars | 65c | 106.51$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.23 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed Red Wings | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Stars | 37c | 89.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Stars | 43c | 84.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Red Wings | 62c | 82.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Stars | 57c | 73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Stars | 37c | 61.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Stars | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 345 | 38.6%133 W · 212 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Red Wings | 61c | 57.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Red Wings | 59c | 56.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0112…4fe9backed Stars | 41c | 55.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5467…ffffbacked Stars | 41c | 55.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Stars | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Stars | 38c | 38.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 607 | 41%249 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked Stars | 41c | 35.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed Red Wings | 59c | 33.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Red Wings | 62c | 33.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Stars | 57c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 164 | 47%77 W · 87 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Stars | 57c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Stars | 41c | 32.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 170 | 42.4%72 W · 98 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…038ebacked Stars | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Red Wings | 62c | 22.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Red Wings | 53c | 20.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 149 | 63.8%95 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Stars | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Red Wings | 62c | 16.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)this page
- Red Wings vs. StarsStars won
- Red Wings vs. Stars: O/U 4.5Over won
- Red Wings vs. Stars: O/U 5.5Under won
- Red Wings vs. Stars: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.