UFC · resolved market
Will Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4506daacc7f6f5d9141e40fc9c79759260434eeb3fe251ea6ee57e8d29791b97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,353
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,353 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 41c | 1,549$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.7 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e73…4af3backed Yes | 59c | 496.13$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.62 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c62…d8d6backed Yes | 59c | 204.1$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.42 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c19…27d7backed Yes | 59c | 173.59$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc64…fc2bbacked Yes | 59c | 167.33$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.51 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7371…cadebacked Yes | 59c | 146.31$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.32 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 42c | 112.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.13 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e6…5cb1backed Yes | 55c | 108.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…31e9backed Yes | 58c | 72.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7acf…c90abacked No | 47c | 72.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x384d…d538backed Yes | 53c | 64.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Yes | 59c | 55.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 50c | 49.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…4e8bbacked Yes | 59c | 41.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1d…8fa8backed Yes | 50c | 39.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…c2cebacked Yes | 58c | 33.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Yes | 59c | 25.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb112…20d3backed Yes | 59c | 24.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3032…2c71backed Yes | 59c | 20.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1179…ab20backed Yes | 58c | 20.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe895…739bbacked Yes | 59c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev win by KO or TKO?this page
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Brendson Ribeiro vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.