MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4520e0d84588a5c0dca86146215cd517490661ec87c3bb4930d4705ecd3dbb58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Milwaukee Brewers, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 1,500$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed Milwaukee Brewers | 34c | 1,176$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 1,174$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.13 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 995.02$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.2 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 16c | 749.99$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.58 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 713$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.2 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 411.15$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.46 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…1787backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 375$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Milwaukee Brewers | 7c | 319.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Milwaukee Brewers | 26c | 269.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.12 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Miami Marlins | 60c | 253$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.2 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 7c | 237.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Miami Marlins | 61c | 151.37$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.03 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 131.63$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 128.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…c3ffbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 122.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 194 | 35.6%69 W · 125 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Miami Marlins | 74c | 93.18$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Milwaukee Brewers | 29c | 84.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 64.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Miami Marlins | 76c | 58.17$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x273d…fb63backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 56.21$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 965 | 53%511 W · 454 L | +18.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…7636backed Milwaukee Brewers | 31c | 39.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 29.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 27.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 246 | 44.7%110 W · 136 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 21.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 3.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.