MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cb7ea83b6e262c6e23455c44c8ba3e756cc1482b99d0923b1da0873ded770dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $134,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 55c | 92,590$50,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,776.5 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…71bdbacked Over | 45c | 40,970$18,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,436.46 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 44c | 26,631$11,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,839.93 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Over | 45c | 23,983$10,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,792.23 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 31c | 18,427$5,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,713.93 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Under | 69c | 18,303$12,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,673.86 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…82c6backed Under | 54c | 9,000$4,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,139.99 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 46c | 8,610$3,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,974.8 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 46c | 2,380$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Under | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.1 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 63c | 1,488$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.92 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 55c | 1,365$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.28 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 45c | 1,024$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.8 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 65c | 749$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.15 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 28c | 682.68$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.15 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b30…fb47backed Under | 72c | 682.68$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec37…85bdbacked Over | 45c | 654.33$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.45 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -13.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 48c | 591.11$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.73 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 48c | 585$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.8 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 583.57$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.06 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 45c | 530$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.5 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…c2d6backed Under | 55c | 454.54$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.54 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x428d…8cb6backed Over | 46c | 419.26$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.86 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 47c | 384.4$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.87 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 31c | 303$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.41 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 54c | 284.9$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.51 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Under | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 10c | 263.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 45c | 250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 515 | 45.2%233 W · 282 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 188.17$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 55c | 180.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.43 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 66c | 169.92$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.03 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 53c | 149.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.24 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 55c | 139.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 47c | 134.89$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Under | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 48c | 119.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 36c | 105.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc138…e79dbacked Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 45c | 99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 55c | 93.93$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5777…f1a7backed Over | 48c | 90$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Under | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 64c | 78.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 49c | 78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Under | 53c | 75.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 47c | 62.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 79c | 62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eba…cb3dbacked Under | 52c | 57.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 53c | 57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x757c…d1bfbacked Over | 46c | 53.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…724dbacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Over | 37c | 38.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8f…b302backed Under | 52c | 38.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 57c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164f…deb3backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 66c | 36.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x193b…f6ecbacked Over | 45c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 57c | 32.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Over | 36c | 32.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 63c | 31.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Under | 65c | 29.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 72c | 26.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 45c | 25.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12bd…aa80backed Over | 46c | 25.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 48c | 24.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…b370backed Under | 55c | 24.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 195 | 55.9%109 W · 86 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 3.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.