NFL · resolved market
Patriots vs. Buccaneers: O/U 48.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4535ba9230ee612cd5abf1e9c3181cc1fd66a7db8342c4b6a50795333bce674a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 10,527$5,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,474.24 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Under | 52c | 9,542$4,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,962.07 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 8,000$4,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,160 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Over | 47c | 5,556$2,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,944.62 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 53c | 5,286$2,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,801.46 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 49c | 4,550$2,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,338.82 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 53c | 1,886$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.58 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 52c | 1,044$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9844…5e6cbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed Over | 50c | 800.95$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.95 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 47c | 597.02$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.66 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 41c | 450$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.5 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Under | 53c | 377.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 41c | 359.57$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.14 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 50c | 320$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.18 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 50c | 298.45$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.48 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Under | 52c | 289.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.7 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…643ebacked Under | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 47c | 279.61$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.19 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…7abbbacked Over | 49c | 202.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.72 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 50c | 108.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 50c | 106.63$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.31 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Over | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 47c | 98.31$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 50c | 88.96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 51c | 69.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…91acbacked Over | 50c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 124 | 46.8%58 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…c33fbacked Over | 47c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 41c | 40.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Over | 59c | 40.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2791…2791backed Over | 48c | 38.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +36%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x804a…ba2dbacked Under | 52c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736f…9439backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x295c…f281backed Over | 50c | 28.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Under | 52c | 27.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf169…22a1backed Over | 49c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over | 41c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b5…88efbacked Under | 52c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Patriots vs. Buccaneers: O/U 48.5this page
- 1H Spread: Buccaneers (-1.5)Patriots won
- Patriots vs. BuccaneersPatriots won
- Patriots vs. Buccaneers: 1H MoneylinePatriots won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)Patriots won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.