NFL · resolved market
Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9c59a21e00323ecbcc8efbeb1ebe84e8cf5cf8e5b46442e0ff0c6e75e06b4a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Patriotsof Buccaneers, Patriots
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7189…b454backed Buccaneers | 53c | 39,619$20,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,997.92 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Patriots | 47c | 20,274$9,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,745.46 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Patriots | 47c | 18,544$8,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,803.25 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Patriots | 47c | 6,500$3,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,445 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…cda8backed Patriots | 48c | 5,890$2,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,063.65 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca36…1e9cbacked Buccaneers | 52c | 5,692$2,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,960.03 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Patriots | 47c | 4,000$1,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,120 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Buccaneers | 53c | 3,830$2,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,029.9 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Buccaneers | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Buccaneers | 53c | 1,905$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.95 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Patriots | 48c | 1,326$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.13 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac0d…f577backed Patriots | 48c | 857.76$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Buccaneers | 52c | 704.97$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.58 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Patriots | 47c | 628.92$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Patriots | 47c | 478.3$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.5 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75a0…be02backed Buccaneers | 54c | 462.96$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48a5…a903backed Buccaneers | 53c | 450$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Buccaneers | 53c | 425.53$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.53 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Patriots | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Buccaneers | 52c | 384.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.2 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161c…3b03backed Buccaneers | 52c | 381.48$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.08 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabf4…d167backed Buccaneers | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Buccaneers | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 174 | 59.2%103 W · 71 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Patriots | 47c | 252.09$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.06 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Patriots | 49c | 246.68$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.34 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Buccaneers | 54c | 232.88$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked Patriots | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7e…06a2backed Buccaneers | 54c | 200$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Patriots | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…0b36backed Buccaneers | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fe…1656backed Patriots | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Buccaneers | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…68b9backed Buccaneers | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2203…e5a1backed Buccaneers | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbecd…9df4backed Buccaneers | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…3d3ebacked Buccaneers | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa648…2cadbacked Buccaneers | 52c | 176.92$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Patriots | 47c | 160.42$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.98 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Buccaneers | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee7…051fbacked Patriots | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +7.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x46ed…cfa6backed Patriots | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad5c…ac13backed Buccaneers | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Patriots | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Patriots | 47c | 95.48$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Buccaneers | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Buccaneers | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…32c2backed Buccaneers | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Buccaneers | 53c | 90$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Patriots | 47c | 90$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d1…ff0cbacked Patriots | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Patriots | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…bff8backed Buccaneers | 54c | 74.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Patriots | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Patriots | 46c | 60.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…3779backed Buccaneers | 52c | 58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Patriots | 48c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Buccaneers | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x416a…00a1backed Buccaneers | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Buccaneers | 51c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x808a…47e3backed Patriots | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2992…e409backed Patriots | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…5019backed Patriots | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…f07bbacked Patriots | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…6914backed Patriots | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4162…46cfbacked Buccaneers | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -7.6wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Buccaneers | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 227 | 45.4%103 W · 124 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x295c…f281backed Buccaneers | 53c | 26.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…0faabacked Buccaneers | 52c | 26.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Buccaneers | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 121 | 41.3%50 W · 71 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Buccaneers | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01b8…446abacked Patriots | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a26…8acbbacked Buccaneers | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 86 | 31.4%27 W · 59 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Buccaneers (-1.5)Patriots won
- Patriots vs. BuccaneersPatriots won
- Patriots vs. Buccaneers: 1H MoneylinePatriots won
- Patriots vs. Buccaneers: O/U 48.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.