Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45472372fbbeb40bf4d467f20ccce68d626d6a2939d7c5ed5356901d86e66c9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,756 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 65c | 2,033$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.76 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb67…129cbacked Yes | 44c | 1,899$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7850…f291backed No | 56c | 1,899$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7290…fa0abacked Yes | 44c | 1,872$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32aa…54c0backed No | 56c | 1,872$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3877…fbf1backed Yes | 36c | 1,799$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.38 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 33c | 488.13$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.62 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 57c | 386.65$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.46 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 62c | 322.65$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.16 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 32c | 300$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 41c | 293.72$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.75 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 34c | 241.54$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.65 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 79c | 237.1$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.13 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 216.36$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 33c | 212.73$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.36 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda59…51c5backed Yes | 38c | 180.81$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 60c | 162.95$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.55 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 41c | 150$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.07 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e54…ad5dbacked Yes | 34c | 145.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 61c | 144.42$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 39c | 141.02$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…e7d4backed Yes | 32c | 138.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 135.01$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes | 37c | 122.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 121.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 32c | 111.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 108$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 37c | 103.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 22c | 94.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 30c | 90.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 31c | 89.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe21a…3292backed Yes | 24c | 82.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 29c | 81.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 34c | 80.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 16c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 30c | 75.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 33c | 74.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…7c44backed Yes | 16c | 67.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 27c | 66.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 60c | 65.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…6e7cbacked No | 60c | 64.46$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d4…f7dcbacked Yes | 36c | 64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 23c | 61.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 20c | 61.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505e…1c76backed Yes | 35c | 58.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe942…2c3ebacked Yes | 26c | 56.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 30c | 54.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 38c | 52.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 42c | 50.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 50.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4e…34ffbacked No | 63c | 47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a7…4aa3backed No | 69c | 46.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b57…52c4backed Yes | 32c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba0b…7132backed No | 62c | 44.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 34c | 41.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed Yes | 34c | 36.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 35.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6f…577ebacked Yes | 36c | 35.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 72c | 34.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 34c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 41c | 33.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 61c | 32.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 31.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 59c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 40c | 27.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 40c | 26.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4968…cda7backed Yes | 41c | 26.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 42c | 25.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a7…ab77backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb68…ac20backed No | 62c | 21.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc293…675dbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4430…a0a8backed No | 61c | 19.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 59c | 18.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 17.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3928…1e39backed No | 71c | 16.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 61c | 16.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 43°F or below on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 58°F or higher on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.