TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,756

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,756 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa37d…b2b4backed No65c2,033$1,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.7632157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb67…129cbacked Yes44c1,899$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7850…f291backed No56c1,899$1,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7290…fa0abacked Yes44c1,872$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$823.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32aa…54c0backed No56c1,872$1,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3877…fbf1backed Yes36c1,799$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.383622.2%8 W · 28 L-4.8wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-48%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes33c488.13$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.6221436%77 W · 137 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e7f…44d4backed No57c386.65$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.4624966.7%166 W · 83 L+15.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No62c322.65$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.1691967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes32c300$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9433058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed Yes41c293.72$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.7538840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c00…1c78backed Yes34c241.54$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.6515330.7%47 W · 106 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No79c237.1$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.132,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes29c216.36$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes33c212.73$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3653925.6%138 W · 401 L-18.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes10c200$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda59…51c5backed Yes38c180.81$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.91020%2 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-37.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa96a…1377backed No60c162.95$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.5554143.6%236 W · 305 L-12.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes20c150$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309520%19 W · 76 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes41c150$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0726253.4%140 W · 122 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e54…ad5dbacked Yes34c145.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-36%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf01…79b6backed No61c144.42$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.958665.1%56 W · 30 L+6.7wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes39c141.02$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5533535.2%118 W · 217 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a75…e7d4backed Yes32c138.26$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443925.6%10 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No63c135.01$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.223,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes37c122.16$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.699434%32 W · 62 L-10.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-31.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes28c121.94$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x2967…4ae7backed Yes32c111.1$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3925725.7%66 W · 191 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+21.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes32c108$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.743,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed Yes37c103.14$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1652245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe44…af27backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2917433.9%59 W · 115 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes22c94.81$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8818316.4%30 W · 153 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes30c90.9$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.77,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xd721…57a7backed Yes32c90$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.245127.1%122 W · 329 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes31c89.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.91,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe21a…3292backed Yes24c82.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-38.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66a1…3de8backed Yes29c81.39$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9868521.5%147 W · 538 L+12.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed Yes34c80.28$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4421235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes16c80$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.481234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc6c8…d7c5backed Yes26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2024149.8%120 W · 121 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes30c75.22$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.241,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes33c74.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9998738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe17b…6f98backed No70c70$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2110150.5%51 W · 50 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9532…7c44backed Yes16c67.42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113622.2%8 W · 28 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-37.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes27c66.45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.281029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No60c65.07$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2298571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ca6…6e7cbacked No60c64.46$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.611361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8d4…f7dcbacked Yes36c64$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.041250%6 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad62…2aa9backed Yes23c61.8$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9516532.7%54 W · 111 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes20c61.37$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.261,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x505e…1c76backed Yes35c58.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.293839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe942…2c3ebacked Yes26c56.52$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.554027.5%11 W · 29 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+7.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes24c55$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9519617.9%35 W · 161 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes30c54.7$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.491,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes38c52.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2021333.8%72 W · 141 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes42c50.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5111044.5%49 W · 61 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No69c50.88$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d73…43f6backed Yes41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.511619.8%23 W · 93 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f4e…34ffbacked No63c47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.39250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39a7…4aa3backed No69c46.35$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.471735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b57…52c4backed Yes32c45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.213935.9%14 W · 25 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-43.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xba0b…7132backed No62c44.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.22050%10 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes34c41.25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.167038.6%27 W · 43 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb608…881ebacked Yes39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.518842.6%80 W · 108 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d84…4ff1backed Yes34c36.76$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.529558%171 W · 124 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes31c35.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.37,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc6f…577ebacked Yes36c35.31$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.711637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No72c34.66$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.661,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes34c34$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.711,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes41c33.18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4532044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No61c32.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7970770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No72c31.45$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.91,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe34…8ee7backed No59c31$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7116355.2%90 W · 73 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.431,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xade1…9040backed Yes40c27.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1133839.9%135 W · 203 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94e6…0a73backed Yes40c26.71$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.87841%32 W · 46 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4968…cda7backed Yes41c26.57$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.795147.1%24 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fbc…4105backed Yes42c25.26$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6133726.4%89 W · 248 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65a7…ab77backed No66c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.452466.7%16 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick69cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb68…ac20backed No62c21.04$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc293…675dbacked No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.64537.8%17 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4430…a0a8backed No61c19.52$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.521030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No59c18.63$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6476371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No63c17.08$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.338,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3928…1e39backed No71c16.95$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.85650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No61c16.44$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.412,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.