Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc894843caff2d64243a5eb3fd84cd6fd6b0c188e330af913a7766f5dffed910d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,328 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 0c | 14,829$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked No | 1c | 12,000$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80f2…1cf2backed Yes | 47c | 1,925$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb2…2195backed No | 53c | 1,925$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 59c | 1,110$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.28 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 53c | 914.54$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.89 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3877…fbf1backed Yes | 45c | 843.84$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.11 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe287…5a0fbacked No | 10c | 624.33$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.49 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 60c | 540.39$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.11 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 12c | 497.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc99f…aeb1backed No | 6c | 285.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 34c | 263.06$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.81 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 63c | 254.66$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.21 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 209.54$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.86 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 32c | 201.53$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.96 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 39c | 190.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.77 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 64c | 185.12$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.64 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 44c | 184.92$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.8 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 169.25$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 44c | 155.41$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.72 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes | 58c | 154.78$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.65 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 36c | 150$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.71 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 68c | 147$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.44 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e54…ad5dbacked Yes | 35c | 144.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.29 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 55c | 131.28$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.12 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 47c | 116.71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 70c | 115$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 33c | 104.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.04 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 14c | 102.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…7105backed Yes | 42c | 94.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.56 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 43c | 90$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 35c | 82.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…5455backed Yes | 61c | 79.88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 66c | 77$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.54 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 33c | 76.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70f4…a54abacked Yes | 37c | 75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38ff…1acdbacked No | 43c | 74.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 39c | 73.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 70.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 36c | 66.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 47c | 63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 32c | 61.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 27c | 60.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.87 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 65c | 56.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c1…9615backed Yes | 36c | 55.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4968…cda7backed Yes | 38c | 53.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…abdbbacked Yes | 38c | 52.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 39c | 51.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 70c | 48.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e4…eec0backed Yes | 62c | 48.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…b5cbbacked Yes | 34c | 47.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 23c | 44.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 66c | 42.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked No | 67c | 41.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x15ea…98e6backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22be…ba43backed Yes | 61c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 36c | 39.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…50d8backed Yes | 72c | 39.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 38.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 66c | 38.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 66c | 37.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb05c…f02fbacked Yes | 38c | 35.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 45c | 35.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b57…52c4backed Yes | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba0b…7132backed No | 65c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 38c | 34.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 42c | 34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 45c | 33.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 64c | 31.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 59c | 30.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21e9…a1d4backed Yes | 38c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938b…e32bbacked Yes | 37c | 29.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +97.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfabd…b2e9backed No | 67c | 29.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…6e7cbacked No | 63c | 25.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebfc…46e8backed No | 61c | 25.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 64c | 23.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 66c | 22.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3c…4fecbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4430…a0a8backed No | 62c | 19.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e75…9311backed No | 54c | 19.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 64c | 19.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 64c | 18.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 43°F or below on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 58°F or higher on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.