Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4552dd2c9970794a6471626a6c3e13c4462f0e9214a0805dde90bc6b86563017
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 65c | 750.07$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.91 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 39c | 266.69$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 265 | 56.2%149 W · 116 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 35c | 250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.36 | 4,505 | 19.6%882 W · 3,623 L | +47.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 35c | 151.49$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 198 | 31.8%63 W · 135 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 236 | 34.7%82 W · 154 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 32c | 87.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 34c | 78.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 457 | 46.4%212 W · 245 L | -20.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 181 | 66.9%121 W · 60 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 21c | 58.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 34c | 58.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…443bbacked Yes | 39c | 53.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 671 | 38.9%261 W · 410 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 30c | 49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 370 | 27.8%103 W · 267 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 65c | 47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 35.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 3,126 | 61.8%1,931 W · 1,195 L | -30.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 31.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 38c | 29.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,178 | 40.6%478 W · 700 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 28.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 660 | 67.4%445 W · 215 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 1,196 | 50.8%608 W · 588 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 375 | 50.7%190 W · 185 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 577 | 57.7%333 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6024…8d26backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8759…d7eabacked No | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 16.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5b55…0c2abacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 28°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on August 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or higher on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.