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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on August 23?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,153
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,618

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,153 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb6fb…c038backed Yes21c218.01$47 inWon+$171.2363733.4%213 W · 424 L+24.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88e0…ceeebacked No21c204.65$42 inLost-$42.018143.2%35 W · 46 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes16c145.62$24 inWon+$121.9210,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes66c138.46$91 inWon+$47.4834161.6%210 W · 131 L-22.0wins-0.06per pick68cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No44c121.89$54 inLost-$54.0512,54546.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L-39.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x398c…c935backed Yes21c116.59$25 inWon+$91.7223634.7%82 W · 154 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes54c82.44$45 inWon+$37.625,62547.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No37c76.13$28 inLost-$27.981,93638.1%737 W · 1,199 L+296.8wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+23.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x79d9…9275backed Yes59c72.88$43 inWon+$29.8545059.1%266 W · 184 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No30c70$21 inLost-$211,17734.9%411 W · 766 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d60…d955backed No30c69.99$21 inLost-$2113224.2%32 W · 100 L-7.7wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-23%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No29c60.53$17 inLost-$17.461,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes35c47$16 inWon+$30.554,00947.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L+71.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x462e…a612backed No43c46.82$20 inLost-$201546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-27.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes75c44.19$33 inWon+$11.1943153.1%229 W · 202 L+25.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No28c43.84$12 inLost-$12.3412,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No25c41.97$10 inLost-$10.3255422.4%124 W · 430 L-21.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa703…6a73backed No62c32.11$20 inLost-$19.916033.3%20 W · 40 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-24.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No77c30.13$23 inLost-$23.25,00353.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L+31.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcc4…f3dabacked No50c28.15$14 inLost-$14.084358.1%25 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No73c27$20 inLost-$19.611,69752.5%891 W · 806 L-42.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed No75c26.14$20 inLost-$19.6157158.1%332 W · 239 L-28.3wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb699…4e20backed No63c23.27$15 inLost-$14.6623750.2%119 W · 118 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No72c20$14 inLost-$14.494162.3%586 W · 355 L-24.3wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No80c20$16 inLost-$162,43479.4%1,933 W · 501 L+99.7wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes79c19.73$16 inWon+$4.1417935.2%63 W · 116 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes61c18.84$12 inWon+$7.252,28358.3%1,331 W · 952 L+85.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33ab…149bbacked No66c17.65$12 inLost-$11.6525569%176 W · 79 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes66c16.08$11 inWon+$5.533,20153.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L-101.7wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No76c16$12 inLost-$12.166,16649.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L-117.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90f9…6114backed Yes75c15$11 inWon+$3.751782.4%14 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick73cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.