Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x456501b463aa20efcdbbd3a92dfae8191fc8ec14f7a48f567974439b0e9bd508
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 6c | 859.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.11 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed Yes | 50c | 335.37$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.3 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 30c | 279.83$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.18 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…dff6backed Yes | 34c | 257.93$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.27 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 61c | 233.12$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.7 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 47c | 214.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.51 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 7c | 196.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 40c | 177.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…617cbacked Yes | 80c | 125.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 28c | 123.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.16 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 43c | 113.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 71c | 106.49$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…d33ebacked Yes | 48c | 105.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.21 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd99b…295ebacked Yes | 59c | 101.67$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…d73cbacked Yes | 78c | 100.54$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…9030backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14d0…446abacked Yes | 45c | 99.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d8…88b4backed Yes | 46c | 99.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.03 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 96.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 73c | 93.03$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 47c | 91.56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 85.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…58aabacked Yes | 53c | 78.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed No | 51c | 74.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 52c | 70.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 29c | 62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…f138backed Yes | 33c | 61.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…25ffbacked Yes | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 46 | 82.6%38 W · 8 L | +7.8wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 47c | 52.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 51.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c07…65ddbacked Yes | 45c | 43.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 58c | 42.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4312…4df9backed Yes | 55c | 41.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2de…8209backed Yes | 74c | 40.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…dce0backed Yes | 27c | 37.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bac…4e7ebacked Yes | 31c | 35.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 60c | 33.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 75c | 32.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0583…b86fbacked Yes | 69c | 32.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd64f…b551backed Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 56cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 79c | 25.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8417…fde5backed Yes | 64c | 23.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed Yes | 59c | 17.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 34°C or higher on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.