Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e6d169a51a1603903dc4a9bd40e32d0d621dcbf89019bd1c6c516c85a5637d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 499.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed No | 78c | 320.74$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.74 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 31c | 298.08$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.95 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…dff6backed Yes | 30c | 258.07$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.73 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 250.25$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…dce0backed Yes | 32c | 250$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 244.75$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 31c | 194.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.53 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 190.94$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.11 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 28c | 173.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 27c | 167.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 71c | 157.95$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.32 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked Yes | 34c | 143.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 140.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…19eabacked No | 76c | 131.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 109.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 69c | 103.3$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…58aabacked Yes | 33c | 102$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 69c | 101.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 100.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d8…88b4backed Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed No | 80c | 98.27$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 69c | 96.8$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51a1…8981backed Yes | 31c | 80.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 21c | 79.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 75.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 73.05$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 72.59$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 71.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 24c | 67.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed Yes | 35c | 64.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…f138backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 30c | 61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 28c | 60.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 69c | 59.83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…e315backed No | 69c | 53.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 29c | 51.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 22c | 51.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 33c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd9…ad53backed Yes | 26c | 41.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7d…305ebacked No | 68c | 40.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff07…c2a7backed No | 68c | 39.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 68c | 38.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed No | 70c | 35.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 66c | 35.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0005…d5fdbacked Yes | 35c | 33.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8417…fde5backed Yes | 36c | 33.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb27…cc9dbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9740…2eeebacked No | 70c | 25.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 69c | 21.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed No | 70c | 14.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 34°C or higher on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.