Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Fresno State Bulldogs vs. San Jose State Spartans
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x458674b42caa81fa7ca5b1d41e3690905889526ebf9db6efba5680d614468181
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fresno State Bulldogsof Fresno State Bulldogs, San Jose State Spartans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed San Jose State Spartans | 10c | 6,102$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.22 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 49c | 2,081$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,055.79 | 740 | 51.5%381 W · 359 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked San Jose State Spartans | 50c | 1,909$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.07 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 79c | 1,515$1,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.17 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked San Jose State Spartans | 1c | 1,419$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 399 | 3.3%13 W · 386 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ae…f107backed San Jose State Spartans | 22c | 1,285$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.27 | 423 | 27.2%115 W · 308 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked San Jose State Spartans | 50c | 800$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked San Jose State Spartans | 50c | 700$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42f3…1e83backed San Jose State Spartans | 3c | 624.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 51c | 580$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.2 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…7c83backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 49c | 340$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.4 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…79bebacked San Jose State Spartans | 14c | 299.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94fa…989ebacked San Jose State Spartans | 51c | 242$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.42 | 814 | 53.1%432 W · 382 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 49c | 224.49$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.49 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f49…1befbacked San Jose State Spartans | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed San Jose State Spartans | 13c | 166.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked San Jose State Spartans | 47c | 140.21$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.56 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 76c | 132.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 402 | 52.7%212 W · 190 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 49c | 101.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.97 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdae5…ed7ebacked San Jose State Spartans | 52c | 101$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x892f…820ebacked San Jose State Spartans | 34c | 86.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 51c | 84$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 52c | 81.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 51c | 81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Jose State Spartans | 48c | 66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed San Jose State Spartans | 51c | 56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed San Jose State Spartans | 48c | 55.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 49c | 55.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8467…3e7abacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 49c | 53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed San Jose State Spartans | 21c | 51.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 490 | 43.1%211 W · 279 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed San Jose State Spartans | 48c | 50.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 301 | 39.2%118 W · 183 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…6974backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 49c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06f4…758dbacked San Jose State Spartans | 53c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 53c | 37.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafe7…8b77backed San Jose State Spartans | 53c | 37.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb736…1946backed San Jose State Spartans | 49c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x232c…12d7backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 48c | 28.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…5557backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 48c | 24.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 115 | 36.5%42 W · 73 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed San Jose State Spartans | 51c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…d4dfbacked San Jose State Spartans | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa554…e53dbacked San Jose State Spartans | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed San Jose State Spartans | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 536 | 46.5%249 W · 287 L | -24.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fresno State Bulldogs vs. San Jose State Spartansthis page
- Fresno State Bulldogs vs. San Jose State Spartans: O/U 149.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.