TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Fresno State Bulldogs vs. San Jose State Spartans

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Fresno State Bulldogsof Fresno State Bulldogs, San Jose State Spartans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$31,624
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,369

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,624 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd218…b5c9backed San Jose State Spartans10c6,102$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.222,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Fresno State Bulldogs49c2,081$1,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,055.7974051.5%381 W · 359 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked San Jose State Spartans50c1,909$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$958.071,39144.1%613 W · 778 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Fresno State Bulldogs79c1,515$1,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.175,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked San Jose State Spartans1c1,419$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.463993.3%13 W · 386 L-21.0wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-89.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x20ae…f107backed San Jose State Spartans22c1,285$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.2742327.2%115 W · 308 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked San Jose State Spartans50c800$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3962,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked San Jose State Spartans50c700$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3481,26043.3%545 W · 715 L+34.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42f3…1e83backed San Jose State Spartans3c624.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20287.1%2 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-43.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Fresno State Bulldogs51c580$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.22,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0c…7c83backed Fresno State Bulldogs50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2505160.8%31 W · 20 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Fresno State Bulldogs49c340$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.482048.2%395 W · 425 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1607…79bebacked San Jose State Spartans14c299.66$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.343520%7 W · 28 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick12cpaid+43%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x94fa…989ebacked San Jose State Spartans51c242$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.4281453.1%432 W · 382 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Fresno State Bulldogs49c224.49$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.4979448.9%388 W · 406 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f49…1befbacked San Jose State Spartans10c200$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195714%8 W · 49 L-0.3wins0.00per pick14cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed San Jose State Spartans13c166.68$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.523,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked San Jose State Spartans47c140.21$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.564,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Fresno State Bulldogs76c132.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3340252.7%212 W · 190 L-9.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Fresno State Bulldogs49c101.9$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.971,17325.2%296 W · 877 L-43.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-21.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdae5…ed7ebacked San Jose State Spartans52c101$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.52250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x892f…820ebacked San Jose State Spartans34c86.35$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.361625%4 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3d8…c8c0backed Fresno State Bulldogs51c84$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.165942.4%25 W · 34 L-5.2wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-22.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed Fresno State Bulldogs52c81.54$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.2911250%56 W · 56 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f9…5526backed Fresno State Bulldogs51c81$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.697346.6%34 W · 39 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Fresno State Bulldogs50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.042,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed San Jose State Spartans48c66$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.685,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed San Jose State Spartans51c56$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.561,07447%505 W · 569 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed San Jose State Spartans48c55.58$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.75440.7%22 W · 32 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Fresno State Bulldogs49c55.1$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.112,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8467…3e7abacked Fresno State Bulldogs49c53$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed San Jose State Spartans21c51.47$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0249043.1%211 W · 279 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed San Jose State Spartans48c50.62$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.330139.2%118 W · 183 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Fresno State Bulldogs49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.51,07046.9%502 W · 568 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6204…6974backed Fresno State Bulldogs49c48$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.48250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x06f4…758dbacked San Jose State Spartans53c42$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.263151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Fresno State Bulldogs53c37.93$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.934,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafe7…8b77backed San Jose State Spartans53c37.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.826558.5%38 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb736…1946backed San Jose State Spartans49c37$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.134148.8%20 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x232c…12d7backed Fresno State Bulldogs48c28.48$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.783354.5%18 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaad7…5557backed Fresno State Bulldogs48c24.03$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.511536.5%42 W · 73 L-6.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-19.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed San Jose State Spartans51c23.08$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.772,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecd6…d4dfbacked San Jose State Spartans49c22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.782147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa554…e53dbacked San Jose State Spartans49c21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.292759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d84…6df0backed San Jose State Spartans50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1053646.5%249 W · 287 L-24.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.