Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Chip Roy win the Texas Republican primary runoff for Attorney General?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x458a287cd1b7fcb75a442b19f5db44c174321d40e73f9dc3c384c234d8d01469
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 15c | 920.05$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.7 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4961…2a1fbacked No | 61c | 197.35$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a2…085cbacked No | 61c | 192.64$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…f349backed No | 61c | 191.75$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4281…be3bbacked No | 61c | 191.56$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc43e…56b0backed No | 61c | 189.19$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d3…3661backed No | 61c | 188.19$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…a0bbbacked No | 61c | 187.91$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x305e…61f7backed No | 61c | 187.54$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5501…aff8backed No | 61c | 186.76$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff0c…d2b3backed No | 61c | 186.3$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6a…f65ebacked No | 61c | 186.06$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…e99fbacked No | 61c | 185.82$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ff…f4fbbacked No | 61c | 181.58$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4a…a880backed No | 61c | 180.75$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2175…e56bbacked No | 61c | 180.43$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 65c | 119.2$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 24c | 110.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…b9a8backed Yes | 34c | 89.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked Yes | 24c | 88.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 28c | 81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f51…d389backed Yes | 74c | 80.37$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed No | 73c | 62.01$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 76c | 61.23$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 56.78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 95 | 78.9%75 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 29c | 49.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b7…dbaabacked Yes | 44c | 45.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 27c | 42.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 70c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfb…e965backed No | 79c | 24.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 56c | 23.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chip Roy win the Texas Republican primary runoff for Attorney General?this page
- Will Mayes Middleton win the Texas Republican primary runoff for Attorney General?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.