Movies · resolved market
Will Marty Supreme win Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy at the 83rd Golden Globes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x458bb09207d50e814c5cec8d290c8726bc28288f13944df5a1bd4aec10f83613
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,525
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,525 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 3c | 12,225$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.14 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x416b…bad6backed Yes | 13c | 4,079$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.82 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 3,720$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 111 | 4.5%5 W · 106 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 5c | 1,424$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.06 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 3c | 1,184$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 10c | 772.01$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 71 | 25.4%18 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…fc23backed Yes | 14c | 545.11$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 5c | 210$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…9ac8backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4f…e58cbacked Yes | 6c | 183.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab72…b70dbacked Yes | 9c | 169.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Yes | 21c | 105$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 36c | 76.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.52 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +22.0wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +88%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 76c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfd…57bcbacked Yes | 37c | 34.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Marty Supreme win Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy at the 83rd Golden Globes?this page
- Will Blue Moon win Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Kiss of the Spider Woman win Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will One Battle After Another win Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy at the 83rd Golden Globes?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.