Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Aston Villa (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45ca42ef99d57d4789106894ed705742dcae92ae906507f594a3ef695cafc1a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Leeds Unitedof Aston Villa, Leeds United
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Aston Villa | 19c | 1,844$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.27 | 459 | 36.2%166 W · 293 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Aston Villa | 19c | 1,378$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.51 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Aston Villa | 20c | 999.53$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.76 | 113 | 24.8%28 W · 85 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Aston Villa | 20c | 656.66$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.22 | 378 | 40.5%153 W · 225 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2544…f319backed Aston Villa | 18c | 606.71$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Aston Villa | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Aston Villa | 18c | 222$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Aston Villa | 17c | 220$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 178 | 49.4%88 W · 90 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Aston Villa | 20c | 170$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 191 | 28.8%55 W · 136 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc151…2501backed Aston Villa | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Aston Villa | 20c | 148.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 234 | 35.9%84 W · 150 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Aston Villa | 19c | 130$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f6…9538backed Aston Villa | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Aston Villa | 20c | 101.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…ee97backed Aston Villa | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c2…57d4backed Aston Villa | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Leeds United | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75f1…907dbacked Leeds United | 74c | 95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -73%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4522…ff26backed Aston Villa | 23c | 73.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Aston Villa | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…3618backed Aston Villa | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Leeds United | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 577 | 44.4%256 W · 321 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Aston Villa (-1.5)this page
- Leeds United vs. Aston Villa: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Leeds United vs. Aston Villa: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.