Premier League · resolved market
Leeds United vs. Aston Villa: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76ad4be80677b70e43e5017d384c2b97c6095449c4919a9d1180f13fcbdcce82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,095
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,095 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 20,592$10,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,098.09 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Over | 44c | 11,300$4,972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,328 | 110 | 29.1%32 W · 78 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 56c | 11,294$6,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,324.72 | 277 | 50.9%141 W · 136 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 45c | 10,018$4,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,510.67 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11cf…2674backed Over | 59c | 3,800$2,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,543.14 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Over | 46c | 3,485$1,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,881.74 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fa…44e5backed Over | 68c | 2,238$1,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.55 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 54cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31b0…8c4cbacked Under | 36c | 2,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 54c | 1,835$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.36 | 300 | 50.7%152 W · 148 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 42c | 1,576$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.87 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bb…98b3backed Over | 62c | 1,230$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.49 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb52b…b156backed Under | 42c | 1,101$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.24 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…c61fbacked Over | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Over | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 54c | 999.95$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.97 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 53c | 910.05$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.09 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…99dcbacked Over | 62c | 806.45$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 46c | 738$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.48 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Under | 55c | 600$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Under | 55c | 537.67$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.72 | 400 | 46%184 W · 216 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78a4…ea47backed Over | 47c | 461.38$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.58 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Over | 45c | 444.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.72 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 54c | 444$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.76 | 215 | 48.8%105 W · 110 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Under | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | -8.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 46c | 323.4$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.4 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 47c | 314.61$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.84 | 198 | 26.3%52 W · 146 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 55c | 240$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 201 | 50.2%101 W · 100 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 54c | 230.04$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.48 | 370 | 36.2%134 W · 236 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd90d…97e5backed Over | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 40c | 158.49$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.74 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 27c | 155$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 577 | 44.4%256 W · 321 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…6d57backed Over | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 104 | 59.6%62 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over | 45c | 147.82$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.3 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 44c | 139$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.84 | 495 | 44.2%219 W · 276 L | -20.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 45c | 125$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.75 | 395 | 61.3%242 W · 153 L | -21.3wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Under | 53c | 118.07$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 150 | 49.3%74 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…01eebacked Over | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc711…d3c6backed Under | 55c | 110$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 49c | 108.68$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 259 | 49.4%128 W · 131 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9140…4d82backed Under | 56c | 103.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 373 | 42.6%159 W · 214 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4702…457fbacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…067abacked Under | 53c | 91.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe22…9a1abacked Over | 47c | 89.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 54c | 85.12$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b8…3539backed Under | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 46c | 76.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 102 | 52.9%54 W · 48 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 39c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 614 | 41.2%253 W · 361 L | -27.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a33…28e8backed Over | 65c | 70.61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…bdf6backed Over | 44c | 68.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b2…f1dabacked Over | 46c | 65.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc794…d09cbacked Over | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under | 53c | 55.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 369 | 56.9%210 W · 159 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 217 | 47.9%104 W · 113 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 46c | 54.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ca…fd12backed Over | 56c | 53.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…3618backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…1437backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +6.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x58de…b7a5backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked Under | 56c | 41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Under | 55c | 33.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 54c | 33.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 206 | 44.7%92 W · 114 L | -10.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 158 | 66.5%105 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 55c | 32.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18e5…260cbacked Over | 46c | 28.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x727c…c1f5backed Over | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 160 | 60%96 W · 64 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 71c | 18.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 252 | 56%141 W · 111 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Under | 59c | 17.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 204 | 25%51 W · 153 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Leeds United vs. Aston Villa: O/U 2.5this page
- Leeds United vs. Aston Villa: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Spread: Aston Villa (-1.5)Leeds United won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.