NHL · resolved market
Hurricanes vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45dae4ad74a17cb18eeeb0ea2376cc2d640b30b28404e535953f8aad071ffdce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d8…dc4abacked Under | 2c | 4,741$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 53c | 2,076$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 64c | 1,731$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.19 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 50c | 1,335$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.5 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…9652backed Under | 25c | 981.5$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.97 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 977.45$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.71 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 975.02$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.76 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 57c | 767$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.74 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 51c | 424$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.76 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fa…f904backed Under | 34c | 408.33$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Under | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +5.9wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Under | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 54c | 329$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 50c | 301.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.02 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 33c | 300.82$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.26 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.06 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Under | 64c | 258.75$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb53…c50bbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 50c | 192.53$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.26 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 53c | 162$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.14 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 50c | 162$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 54c | 151.44$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.11 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 69c | 123.43$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…50d9backed Under | 29c | 120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 31c | 105$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 153 | 54.9%84 W · 69 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Over | 47c | 101$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.53 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +11.1wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +49%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 46c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Over | 47c | 59.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 49c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…bdecbacked Under | 53c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 48c | 28.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x806c…3381backed Under | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 72c | 25.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 50c | 24.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 51c | 23.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10c5…5ec9backed Over | 49c | 21.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 219 | 51.6%113 W · 106 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d21…8648backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hurricanes vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5this page
- Hurricanes vs. CapitalsCapitals won
- Hurricanes vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.