NHL · resolved market
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe95feffb0aa46e1e5b4c041bdb48151f36c043741984f90f6303c19dbeb4a3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Capitalsof Hurricanes, Capitals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Hurricanes | 42c | 50,000$21,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,999.99 | 485 | 45.4%220 W · 265 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Capitals | 58c | 21,713$12,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,119.28 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Capitals | 58c | 17,500$10,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,350 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Capitals | 58c | 7,857$4,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,299.9 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Hurricanes | 41c | 3,124$1,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280.97 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…6dfebacked Capitals | 59c | 2,720$1,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.34 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Hurricanes | 37c | 2,013$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.93 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Capitals | 63c | 2,000$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Capitals | 58c | 1,710$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.08 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Capitals | 58c | 692.08$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.31 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…de59backed Capitals | 58c | 666$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Hurricanes | 40c | 530.97$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.38 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Capitals | 65c | 369.49$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.49 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Hurricanes | 15c | 309.07$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb3…b7febacked Hurricanes | 40c | 250.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Capitals | 65c | 231.8$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.8 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Capitals | 59c | 187$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.67 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Capitals | 51c | 175.25$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.53 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Capitals | 59c | 163$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.83 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +10.5wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Capitals | 60c | 147.84$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.14 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed Hurricanes | 46c | 111$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.32 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Capitals | 64c | 109.89$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Hurricanes | 35c | 106.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Capitals | 64c | 103.79$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Hurricanes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Hurricanes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 210 | 42.4%89 W · 121 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Capitals | 58c | 95.32$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Hurricanes | 39c | 95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Capitals | 63c | 80.94$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Hurricanes | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 151 | 45%68 W · 83 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd94a…2728backed Hurricanes | 42c | 72.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Hurricanes | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 218 | 56.4%123 W · 95 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Capitals | 61c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Capitals | 56c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf90a…b810backed Hurricanes | 42c | 64.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…c071backed Capitals | 62c | 59.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Hurricanes | 32c | 57.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Capitals | 58c | 56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Hurricanes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ef…cdd9backed Hurricanes | 39c | 50.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Capitals | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Capitals | 64c | 47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Hurricanes | 36c | 47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Capitals | 58c | 47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Capitals | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Hurricanes | 36c | 46.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Capitals | 58c | 45.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaadf…bc0cbacked Hurricanes | 40c | 42.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…1948backed Capitals | 58c | 41.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Hurricanes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Hurricanes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Capitals | 63c | 33.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…d7e9backed Capitals | 64c | 32.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…4d2cbacked Capitals | 65c | 30.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Hurricanes | 36c | 29.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Hurricanes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Hurricanes | 42c | 24.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b5…5414backed Capitals | 53c | 23.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b1…6cfabacked Capitals | 53c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Capitals | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Capitals | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 219 | 51.6%113 W · 106 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Capitals | 60c | 19.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)this page
- Hurricanes vs. CapitalsCapitals won
- Hurricanes vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Hurricanes vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.