TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Hurricanes vs. Capitals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Capitalsof Hurricanes, Capitals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$663,485
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$681,102

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $663,485 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 452 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x03e8…1697backed Capitals37c151,163$55,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95,253.0367051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Hurricanes61c132,772$81,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81,318.9348545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9976…67dabacked Hurricanes63c71,968$45,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,339.5619848.5%96 W · 102 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Capitals39c44,273$17,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,006.7238748.3%187 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb859…e244backed Capitals38c25,000$9,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,499.9211052.7%58 W · 52 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Hurricanes60c19,768$11,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,870.0856152%292 W · 269 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Capitals38c19,429$7,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,130.092,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Capitals23c19,062$4,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,608.7933345.6%152 W · 181 L+0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebbb…4214backed Hurricanes55c18,137$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00012835.9%46 W · 82 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Capitals41c17,145$7,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,115.791,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Hurricanes63c15,922$10,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,021.9156649.5%280 W · 286 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Hurricanes63c15,212$9,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,583.341850%209 W · 209 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Hurricanes63c15,000$9,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,449.993262.5%20 W · 12 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+23.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Capitals40c15,000$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,999.9550049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3644…6fdfbacked Hurricanes63c14,996$9,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,447.17944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Hurricanes62c11,000$6,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,8207352.1%38 W · 35 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Hurricanes59c10,834$6,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,353.8261748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Capitals39c10,769$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,568.921,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x498c…42bfbacked Capitals39c9,779$3,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,965.324057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Capitals39c8,000$3,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,88021036.2%76 W · 134 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Hurricanes63c7,717$4,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,861.7161953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Hurricanes59c7,037$4,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,131.521,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Capitals40c6,500$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,9001,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Capitals36c6,487$2,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,151.7821850.9%111 W · 107 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Hurricanes63c6,472$4,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,104.7679350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Capitals38c6,093$2,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,799.5466951%341 W · 328 L-14.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Capitals41c5,767$2,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,396.924957.1%28 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Hurricanes0c5,143$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.577450.7%5 W · 740 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Hurricanes62c5,021$3,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,121.7361950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Hurricanes59c5,000$2,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,95062249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Capitals38c5,000$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,10031654.7%173 W · 143 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x56be…57eebacked Capitals40c5,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0002864.3%18 W · 10 L+6.3wins+0.22per pick42cpaid+64.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x098b…1fa5backed Capitals39c5,000$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0502147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Hurricanes61c5,000$3,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,05022747.6%108 W · 119 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef23…5b60backed Capitals37c4,802$1,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,038.5964242.2%271 W · 371 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb58…5d49backed Capitals42c4,765$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,785.47666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+39.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2218…9467backed Hurricanes55c4,658$2,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,562.08250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Hurricanes62c4,573$2,843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,843.342,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Capitals34c4,462$1,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,928.921,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Hurricanes80c4,253$3,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,390.631,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Hurricanes62c4,175$2,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,588.586649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Hurricanes62c4,077$2,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,527.7475251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4b7…3c8bbacked Capitals37c4,000$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5207347.9%35 W · 38 L-0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33dd…ef8abacked Hurricanes58c4,000$2,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,319.984841.7%20 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Capitals39c3,800$1,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,30260337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Capitals60c3,570$2,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,437.6599638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee7e…61bbbacked Hurricanes60c3,465$2,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,091.0641248.3%199 W · 213 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x164f…deb3backed Hurricanes64c3,438$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20025446.5%118 W · 136 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4fbe…b84fbacked Hurricanes63c3,170$1,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,997.118258.2%106 W · 76 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Hurricanes62c3,108$1,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,922.071,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Capitals39c3,034$1,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,850.7321048.1%101 W · 109 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Capitals33c2,946$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,980.251,35452.6%712 W · 642 L+46.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Capitals39c2,836$1,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,729.918641.9%78 W · 108 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Capitals44c2,724$1,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,522.768252.4%43 W · 39 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Capitals40c2,700$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,619.9933243.7%145 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x154b…95dbbacked Capitals39c2,695$1,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,643.84837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid+11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Hurricanes5c2,555$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.589636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc995…61aabacked Hurricanes59c2,532$1,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,493.7360%0 W · 6 L-3.1wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Capitals40c2,500$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50044551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed Capitals39c2,500$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5258650%43 W · 43 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d88…480cbacked Hurricanes60c2,474$1,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,484.23540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03ea…c6f9backed Hurricanes60c2,292$1,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,374.95540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a2a…2f37backed Hurricanes62c2,283$1,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,415.242653.8%14 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Capitals38c2,237$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,386.8147951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Capitals26c2,155$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,601.362,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Capitals46c2,147$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157.182,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ff6…2dd5backed Capitals42c2,132$896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,236.77475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+44%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Capitals74c2,018$1,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.611,10752%576 W · 531 L+63.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+7.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9405…c071backed Capitals39c2,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2207647.4%36 W · 40 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Capitals38c1,975$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,224.51,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Capitals39c1,851$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,135.8513954%75 W · 64 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcce2…40bcbacked Capitals42c1,742$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,010.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe786…b716backed Hurricanes64c1,563$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.34862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked Hurricanes64c1,550$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99224945.4%113 W · 136 L-16.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb2f…936abacked Hurricanes63c1,516$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.088664%55 W · 31 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+30.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Hurricanes61c1,477$904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90428152%146 W · 135 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3265…d5b8backed Hurricanes2c1,384$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.96750.7%34 W · 33 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-14.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x522e…5ba3backed Hurricanes59c1,343$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.16540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa63c…27a4backed Capitals41c1,341$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.031963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+24.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Hurricanes60c1,335$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.7545955.1%253 W · 206 L+1.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Capitals40c1,322$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792.961,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bf6…5200backed Hurricanes62c1,316$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815.785856.9%33 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Capitals38c1,296$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.981,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Capitals37c1,265$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.9584953.8%457 W · 392 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Hurricanes59c1,250$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.4932251.9%167 W · 155 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e05…1b97backed Hurricanes59c1,202$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.224339.5%17 W · 26 L-6.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-30.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc6ec…81c2backed Capitals43c1,201$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.381625%4 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-38.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5593…6be6backed Capitals35c1,200$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.37862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+37.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3449…abdfbacked Capitals42c1,166$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.334247.6%20 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6395…d69dbacked Hurricanes61c1,164$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.7540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Hurricanes9c1,162$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.932174.1%9 W · 208 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+36.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4a8…68ebbacked Capitals38c1,130$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.032245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0e1…99dbbacked Capitals22c1,125$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882.2911949.6%59 W · 60 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fb4…5c6cbacked Hurricanes63c1,111$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7005752.6%30 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Capitals41c1,111$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.4933447.9%160 W · 174 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Hurricanes60c1,007$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.631,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Capitals14c1,001$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865.4854418%98 W · 446 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Hurricanes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Hurricanes59c1,000$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59062346.9%292 W · 331 L-3.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Hurricanes63c1,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63025552.5%134 W · 121 L-0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.