Asian League · resolved market
Will FC Mito Holly Hock vs. V-Varen Nagasaki end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45dea89b3d9be9baafe94a91ee5b40ca082218f34047a0ac6398f3325ca562b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,448
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,448 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 28c | 2,500$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 243 | 23%56 W · 187 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 73c | 1,892$1,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.1 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 932.17$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.12 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a1…7833backed Yes | 28c | 464.29$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 27c | 297.5$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.32 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02b1…c764backed Yes | 25c | 222.37$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 74c | 214.47$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.1 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 74c | 155$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 396 | 55.8%221 W · 175 L | +31.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 8c | 143.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 282 | 51.4%145 W · 137 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 70c | 117.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Yes | 30c | 111.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed Yes | 25c | 105$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Yes | 28c | 103.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 23c | 91.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 564 | 45.4%256 W · 308 L | -25.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 24c | 75.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 70c | 67.04$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…5d8ebacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc08c…4b12backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bff…c8a8backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 70c | 42.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…bb08backed No | 73c | 32.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed No | 71c | 15.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked No | 76c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked No | 75c | 13.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Mito Holly Hock vs. V-Varen Nagasaki end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Mito Holly Hock win on 2026-06-06?No won
- Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-06-06?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.