Premier League · resolved market
FA Cup: Birmingham City vs. Newcastle (To Advance)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4648536775bcad7f75383cd667b006e951713d4855ed13c7cf6ade1fd4b3ced9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Newcastleof Birmingham, Newcastle
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,940
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,940 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc56a…4aabbacked Birmingham | 39c | 9,749$3,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,774.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Newcastle | 62c | 5,435$3,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,072.83 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bb…ad38backed Newcastle | 79c | 1,943$1,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.99 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed Birmingham | 19c | 1,105$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 91 | 11%10 W · 81 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Birmingham | 31c | 1,074$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332 | 246 | 30.5%75 W · 171 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Newcastle | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 346 | 43.9%152 W · 194 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Birmingham | 30c | 995.07$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.73 | 342 | 51.8%177 W · 165 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf00f…711abacked Birmingham | 28c | 706.41$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.81 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…910cbacked Birmingham | 28c | 647.81$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.25 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1e…1f0bbacked Newcastle | 72c | 600$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 52cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Newcastle | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.71 | 290 | 44.8%130 W · 160 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Newcastle | 56c | 448.32$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.26 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Newcastle | 53c | 376.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.11 | 253 | 39.1%99 W · 154 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…b4b2backed Newcastle | 71c | 274.1$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.46 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b82…64bcbacked Birmingham | 28c | 268$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b7…1f27backed Newcastle | 72c | 268$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5502…207ebacked Newcastle | 71c | 211.32$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.28 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Newcastle | 73c | 205.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 427 | 55%235 W · 192 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Newcastle | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed Newcastle | 80c | 168.43$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 103 | 41.7%43 W · 60 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Newcastle | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 296 | 53%157 W · 139 L | -23.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Newcastle | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92be…d717backed Newcastle | 71c | 84.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…62aebacked Newcastle | 70c | 84.46$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5995…6ad1backed Birmingham | 28c | 83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…666cbacked Newcastle | 72c | 83$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…4864backed Birmingham | 42c | 70.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -21%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Newcastle | 54c | 61.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 327 | 37.6%123 W · 204 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Birmingham | 29c | 60.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 655 | 57.7%378 W · 277 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ca…ab71backed Newcastle | 72c | 58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f75…9fdbbacked Birmingham | 28c | 58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Newcastle | 67c | 55.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 815 | 59%481 W · 334 L | +32.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked Newcastle | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06be…8a46backed Newcastle | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -6.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -42%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x97cd…8689backed Newcastle | 71c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcea5…e0c1backed Newcastle | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked Newcastle | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9af…f7b2backed Newcastle | 52c | 38.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…8d19backed Birmingham | 31c | 35.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Newcastle | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Newcastle | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd2…8759backed Newcastle | 71c | 29.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1646…f71abacked Newcastle | 73c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba3e…f062backed Newcastle | 71c | 25.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb7…fc5abacked Newcastle | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5769…a5dabacked Newcastle | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcf…48e1backed Newcastle | 75c | 19.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +8.6wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x18cc…93edbacked Newcastle | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c2…8acfbacked Newcastle | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdd…425fbacked Newcastle | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.