Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x464d94d02f7ce0fd2fbc97c27d3e362ebf41e462c138236d4862117851e996bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabalenkaof Sabalenka, Wang
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Sabalenka | 68c | 1,024$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.59 | 2,304 | 51.1%1,177 W · 1,127 L | +10.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8087backed Wang | 34c | 854.88$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.19 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Wang | 28c | 599.99$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 6,998 | 39.7%2,779 W · 4,219 L | -16.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2e…9d0bbacked Sabalenka | 71c | 566.93$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.41 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked Wang | 32c | 480.54$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.3 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Sabalenka | 72c | 416.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 265 | 51.3%136 W · 129 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked Sabalenka | 72c | 138.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 848 | 57.4%487 W · 361 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…68b6backed Sabalenka | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Sabalenka | 66c | 75.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 265 | 47.9%127 W · 138 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa917…4e8dbacked Wang | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Sabalenka | 52c | 60.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 843 | 49.8%420 W · 423 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fb…c3cabacked Sabalenka | 72c | 51.39$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Sabalenka | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 3,809 | 45.4%1,730 W · 2,079 L | -35.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Sabalenka | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 242 | 59.9%145 W · 97 L | -12.1wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed Wang | 32c | 31.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 582 | 53.3%310 W · 272 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed Sabalenka | 66c | 18.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…6471backed Sabalenka | 71c | 14.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5)this page
- Aryna Sabalenka vs. Xinyu Wang: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Xinyu WangAryna Sabalenka won
- Sabalenka vs. Wang: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs WangSabalenka won
- Set 2 Winner: Sabalenka vs WangSabalenka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.