Tennis · resolved market
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Xinyu Wang: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62dc3f6a6b8cb3f5bc0961b1fbec5372b6b6cc8078295da2b0939b74f34e8c89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Under 2.5 | 52c | 9,352$4,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,488.84 | 143 | 43.4%62 W · 81 L | -14.5wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8087backed Over 2.5 | 48c | 7,500$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,599.99 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb03…1a23backed Over 2.5 | 42c | 3,456$1,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,446.39 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over 2.5 | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5c…9353backed Over 2.5 | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over 2.5 | 24c | 999.99$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1,094 | 52.4%573 W · 521 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under 2.5 | 76c | 620.92$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.02 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Over 2.5 | 24c | 600$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd360…2eabbacked Under 2.5 | 75c | 537.33$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.33 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked Under 2.5 | 52c | 480.12$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.46 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under 2.5 | 76c | 328.95$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.95 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Over 2.5 | 24c | 304.45$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.07 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under 2.5 | 50c | 206.44$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.22 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked Under 2.5 | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 306 | 48.4%148 W · 158 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…b434backed Over 2.5 | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Over 2.5 | 25c | 112$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 695 | 45.8%318 W · 377 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under 2.5 | 60c | 109.23$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 852 | 50%426 W · 426 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…33dabacked Over 2.5 | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 101 | 40.6%41 W · 60 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4b…0b44backed Over 2.5 | 50c | 97.22$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef7…bbc4backed Under 2.5 | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…9197backed Under 2.5 | 68c | 65.13$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 335 | 58.5%196 W · 139 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Under 2.5 | 76c | 50.12$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 1,042 | 36.5%380 W · 662 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x290a…0994backed Over 2.5 | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under 2.5 | 72c | 37.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under 2.5 | 68c | 37.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 690 | 47%324 W · 366 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aryna Sabalenka vs. Xinyu Wang: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Xinyu WangAryna Sabalenka won
- Sabalenka vs. Wang: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs WangSabalenka won
- Set 2 Winner: Sabalenka vs WangSabalenka won
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5)Sabalenka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.