Tennis · resolved market
Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Xinyu Wang
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd95b83e4544998f324a078d4f2a30a72374ebcf86d6c3a7534833717887dab03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aryna Sabalenkaof Aryna Sabalenka, Xinyu Wang
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $417,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $424,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $417,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Xinyu Wang | 9c | 36,101$3,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,249.09 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x565c…878dbacked Xinyu Wang | 10c | 33,829$3,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,425.7 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Xinyu Wang | 4c | 19,393$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.8 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2978…b511backed Xinyu Wang | 2c | 15,159$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 423 | 32.4%137 W · 286 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Xinyu Wang | 10c | 13,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.96 | 611 | 52.2%319 W · 292 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8087backed Xinyu Wang | 11c | 12,500$1,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,375 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8b…7a07backed Xinyu Wang | 11c | 6,976$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.37 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Xinyu Wang | 4c | 6,924$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.66 | 1,435 | 24.3%348 W · 1,087 L | -36.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Xinyu Wang | 6c | 6,673$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.31 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Xinyu Wang | 10c | 5,734$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.14 | 332 | 35.2%117 W · 215 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d4…8b32backed Xinyu Wang | 3c | 5,665$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.49 | 1,206 | 8%96 W · 1,110 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Xinyu Wang | 9c | 5,392$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.39 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Xinyu Wang | 9c | 4,994$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.46 | 1,658 | 49.9%828 W · 830 L | +7.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Xinyu Wang | 9c | 4,888$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.61 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Xinyu Wang | 9c | 4,722$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 1,865 | 45.6%851 W · 1,014 L | +50.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb03…1a23backed Xinyu Wang | 12c | 4,520$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.5 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…3f3fbacked Xinyu Wang | 1c | 4,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 853 | 48.9%417 W · 436 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Xinyu Wang | 9c | 3,611$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 1,865 | 44.7%834 W · 1,031 L | +36.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Xinyu Wang | 9c | 3,201$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.03 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Xinyu Wang | 5c | 3,200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 973 | 7.9%77 W · 896 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Xinyu Wang | 9c | 3,147$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.22 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0385…acafbacked Xinyu Wang | 11c | 3,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -5.3wins | -0.21per pick | 45cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Xinyu Wang | 1c | 2,916$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 788 | 38.2%301 W · 487 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Xinyu Wang | 10c | 2,520$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.52 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Xinyu Wang | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Xinyu Wang | 9c | 1,943$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.75 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Xinyu Wang | 9c | 1,370$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.15 | 726 | 38.8%282 W · 444 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Xinyu Wang | 9c | 1,355$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.19 | 785 | 36.1%283 W · 502 L | +36.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Xinyu Wang | 10c | 1,267$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.72 | 1,679 | 48.1%808 W · 871 L | +36.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Xinyu Wang | 11c | 1,182$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 129 | 33.3%43 W · 86 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Xinyu Wang | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 300 | 53.7%161 W · 139 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Xinyu Wang | 5c | 906.81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36cf…d3aebacked Xinyu Wang | 11c | 750$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 449 | 46.1%207 W · 242 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Xinyu Wang | 9c | 743$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.87 | 568 | 27.3%155 W · 413 L | +23.1wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Xinyu Wang | 6c | 663.55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 877 | 41.3%362 W · 515 L | -14.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Xinyu Wang | 6c | 627.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 425 | 46.4%197 W · 228 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5867…2e20backed Xinyu Wang | 2c | 527.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 244 | 40.2%98 W · 146 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e3…f2c9backed Xinyu Wang | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb88a…f6adbacked Xinyu Wang | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 113 | 45.1%51 W · 62 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…59bcbacked Xinyu Wang | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked Xinyu Wang | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 917 | 54%495 W · 422 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked Xinyu Wang | 11c | 470$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Xinyu Wang | 9c | 457.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53d5…a83cbacked Xinyu Wang | 11c | 445$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1d…6ed2backed Xinyu Wang | 11c | 433.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Xinyu Wang | 9c | 417$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 695 | 45.8%318 W · 377 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…7d64backed Xinyu Wang | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Xinyu Wang | 9c | 399$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 489 | 47.4%232 W · 257 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Xinyu Wang | 8c | 394$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Xinyu Wang | 4c | 364.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Xinyu Wang | 10c | 338.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 375 | 47.2%177 W · 198 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…559abacked Xinyu Wang | 11c | 333$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 389 | 52.2%203 W · 186 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Xinyu Wang | 11c | 259.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 255 | 46.7%119 W · 136 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Xinyu Wang | 9c | 240$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48e…b476backed Xinyu Wang | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 174 | 39.7%69 W · 105 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b5…1bd4backed Xinyu Wang | 10c | 193.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 164 | 45.1%74 W · 90 L | -11.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…abffbacked Xinyu Wang | 11c | 177.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Xinyu Wang | 9c | 161.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 1,178 | 46.3%545 W · 633 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Xinyu Wang | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 284 | 42.3%120 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked Xinyu Wang | 11c | 121.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 204 | 54.9%112 W · 92 L | +9.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Xinyu Wang | 9c | 120.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 221 | 52.9%117 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3be6…52e3backed Xinyu Wang | 10c | 110.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50cc…a534backed Xinyu Wang | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Xinyu Wang | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Xinyu Wangthis page
- Aryna Sabalenka vs. Xinyu Wang: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Sabalenka vs. Wang: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs WangSabalenka won
- Set 2 Winner: Sabalenka vs WangSabalenka won
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5)Sabalenka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.