World Politics · resolved market
Liberal Party (V) wins 4% or more of vote in Norwegian election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x465f89319b903b7f8fa9080d6e31264a5a439651c9dde08a3b2913f058f4f00f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,615
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,615 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 75c | 602.73$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.96 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 7c | 364.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 30c | 274.58$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.65 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 4c | 253.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 40c | 230.7$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.06 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 71c | 200$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 36c | 155$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.5 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed No | 40c | 154.56$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.69 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 19c | 123$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf95…b096backed Yes | 65c | 115.76$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d65…1dfabacked Yes | 66c | 110.26$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a4…2f08backed Yes | 22c | 105.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…20ccbacked Yes | 63c | 103.17$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 113 | 31%35 W · 78 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 102$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…fe93backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…02c4backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…ef6abacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…8fcabacked No | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ed…f4d8backed Yes | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…b93bbacked Yes | 70c | 49.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +2,378.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9c…5829backed No | 44c | 44.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38b2…11eebacked Yes | 72c | 41.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed No | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6769…e96abacked Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2d…dbcbbacked Yes | 58c | 23.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x101c…5a31backed Yes | 67c | 22.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.