Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x466246ec1f086d3cf4996bf8357a01f2b36fbc3dae764d833e3d7a59fa16ef08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e77…c4f3backed No | 57c | 5,000$2,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,150 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +21%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 34c | 4,376$1,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,501.23 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 5c | 1,676$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.65 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 1,325$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…2c1fbacked Yes | 45c | 1,273$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.48 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ca…a461backed Yes | 19c | 812.88$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.05 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 617.94$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.23 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee8b…6436backed Yes | 63c | 569.01$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.48 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0c…2265backed Yes | 22c | 401.54$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 7c | 376.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac8…fc51backed No | 24c | 376$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf493…f4f6backed Yes | 41c | 340$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.6 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd6…e746backed Yes | 8c | 321.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3960…ad0fbacked Yes | 7c | 314.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x848f…612fbacked Yes | 64c | 311.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…7da1backed Yes | 10c | 311.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…e7e6backed Yes | 32c | 247.1$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.41 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac2…9895backed No | 73c | 245.31$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 61c | 234.35$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.43 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…f4c5backed Yes | 63c | 200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb59c…9b66backed Yes | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…0bdabacked Yes | 37c | 199.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70d7…8537backed No | 55c | 170.15$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8298…b978backed Yes | 75c | 150$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 183 | 15.3%28 W · 155 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…e4d2backed Yes | 57c | 149.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.99 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb5…a393backed No | 60c | 134.98$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 167 | 61.7%103 W · 64 L | +19.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…4282backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c5…2e55backed Yes | 22c | 88.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72c…a633backed Yes | 28c | 88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e6dcbacked Yes | 18c | 81.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…cf89backed Yes | 42c | 50.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aba…af7cbacked Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0622…3437backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64b2…a51abacked Yes | 53c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…0689backed Yes | 53c | 40.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…3c7fbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaae…279ebacked Yes | 63c | 17.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 76c | 13.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in November?this page
- Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in November?No won
- Will Dogecoin dip to $0.15 in November?Yes won
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.