NFL · resolved market
Lions vs. Bengals: O/U 49.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x468c946db9cf5c3fa475c68d470fa84e35c810387d75095da7224306626dc580
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,948
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb230…4193backed Under | 52c | 4,306$2,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,239.12 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x991a…2411backed Over | 48c | 4,086$1,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,124.72 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Under | 53c | 2,029$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075.07 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 46c | 284.35$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.55 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 54c | 281.42$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.97 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 51c | 272.33$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.53 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Over | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…fba7backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 53c | 190.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.33 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Under | 52c | 135$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f68…0e4bbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 47c | 47.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x646e…294dbacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe914…1707backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13cd…245dbacked Over | 49c | 29.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca9…cb3dbacked Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50c…66b7backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lions vs. Bengals: O/U 49.5this page
- Lions vs. BengalsLions won
- Lions vs. Bengals: O/U 42.5Over won
- Lions vs. Bengals: O/U 44.5Over won
- Lions vs. Bengals: O/U 47.5Over won
- Spread: Lions (-10.5)Lions won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.