NFL · resolved market
Spread: Lions (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1f8ece4085aeb0a4fd7cdd7979185da65402614098d8ca9dc14f635f23c742b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lionsof Lions, Bengals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,033
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,423
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,033 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Lions | 45c | 20,000$9,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,000 | 206 | 34.5%71 W · 135 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Bengals | 48c | 19,548$9,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,350.74 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Bengals | 56c | 18,026$10,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,094.53 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Lions | 62c | 17,174$10,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,498.46 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Bengals | 43c | 13,894$5,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,963.88 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Lions | 44c | 11,000$4,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,160 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bengals | 55c | 8,000$4,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,399.99 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Lions | 46c | 5,966$2,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,247.42 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Lions | 45c | 5,887$2,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,224.93 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Bengals | 55c | 5,411$2,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,976.02 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Bengals | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,649.99 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3134…1b18backed Lions | 46c | 4,783$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,582.61 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Bengals | 55c | 4,500$2,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,475 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Bengals | 55c | 4,500$2,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,474.56 | 184 | 35.9%66 W · 118 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Lions | 45c | 3,108$1,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,709.4 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Lions | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 239 | 37.7%90 W · 149 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed Lions | 44c | 1,892$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.53 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Bengals | 52c | 1,485$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.1 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Lions | 47c | 1,185$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.05 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…2534backed Lions | 46c | 1,150$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.47 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Lions | 45c | 951.07$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.54 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…0a2bbacked Lions | 46c | 867.11$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.11 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Bengals | 53c | 799.96$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.98 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Lions | 45c | 689.28$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.1 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35de…b39abacked Lions | 46c | 657$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Lions | 45c | 652.22$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.72 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Bengals | 54c | 650$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351 | 266 | 48.9%130 W · 136 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Lions | 47c | 649.5$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.23 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbf…06d4backed Lions | 47c | 638.3$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Bengals | 54c | 435$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.9 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…6af9backed Lions | 48c | 425$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Lions | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Lions | 47c | 361.7$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.7 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…c97fbacked Lions | 45c | 333.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f55…bae8backed Lions | 74c | 317.29$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.29 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Lions | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | -12.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb0…db10backed Lions | 51c | 274.51$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.51 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4f…86b3backed Lions | 47c | 202.13$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Lions | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Bengals | 53c | 190$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…f1b3backed Lions | 45c | 164.6$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.53 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Lions | 47c | 160$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.8 | 208 | 51%106 W · 102 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Bengals | 56c | 125$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Bengals | 53c | 122$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.66 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Lions | 67c | 118.8$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed Lions | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb11…e537backed Bengals | 54c | 109.26$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad5c…ac13backed Lions | 47c | 107$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.71 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…be9abacked Lions | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 92 | 53.3%49 W · 43 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Bengals | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Bengals | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ea…9910backed Bengals | 54c | 83.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Lions | 47c | 80.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…bff8backed Bengals | 54c | 74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Lions | 45c | 74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.74 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Lions | 45c | 64.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Bengals | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…5e2bbacked Lions | 49c | 57.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Lions | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Lions | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 227 | 45.4%103 W · 124 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Lions | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Lions | 47c | 47.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f68…0e4bbacked Bengals | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d65…3a17backed Lions | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fe…73a4backed Bengals | 54c | 40.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Bengals | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Bengals | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe914…1707backed Bengals | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…2a91backed Bengals | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6198…d0ffbacked Lions | 47c | 29.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfca9…cb3dbacked Bengals | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa614…70a4backed Bengals | 55c | 27.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e08…dfe0backed Lions | 46c | 25.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lions (-10.5)this page
- Lions vs. BengalsLions won
- Lions vs. Bengals: O/U 42.5Over won
- Lions vs. Bengals: O/U 44.5Over won
- Lions vs. Bengals: O/U 47.5Over won
- Lions vs. Bengals: O/U 49.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.