MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Atlanta Braves
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x468ddd556aa4713d1541ff3127c2fcf3e053e00ad76ccdb853b655a2f2cd4c21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Minnesota Twins, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Minnesota Twins | 32c | 6,452$2,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,036.11 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Atlanta Braves | 68c | 4,000$2,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Atlanta Braves | 53c | 3,455$1,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,627.05 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Atlanta Braves | 69c | 1,924$1,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.44 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Minnesota Twins | 39c | 1,282$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Minnesota Twins | 49c | 1,000$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.9 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Atlanta Braves | 65c | 834.76$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.07 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…821cbacked Minnesota Twins | 39c | 771.79$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ff…6c51backed Atlanta Braves | 69c | 580$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.8 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Minnesota Twins | 32c | 551.13$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.36 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Minnesota Twins | 33c | 533.97$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.84 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Atlanta Braves | 68c | 474.07$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.7 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Atlanta Braves | 68c | 407.33$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.8 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…dcafbacked Minnesota Twins | 32c | 317.77$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.69 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Atlanta Braves | 49c | 308.07$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.93 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Minnesota Twins | 28c | 228.13$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Atlanta Braves | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Minnesota Twins | 34c | 189.85$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.55 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Atlanta Braves | 69c | 162.59$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.85 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Atlanta Braves | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Atlanta Braves | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x734e…0d0dbacked Minnesota Twins | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Atlanta Braves | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Minnesota Twins | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Atlanta Braves | 69c | 66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Atlanta Braves | 67c | 62$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Atlanta Braves | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Atlanta Braves | 66c | 49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Atlanta Braves | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Atlanta Braves | 69c | 37.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Atlanta Braves | 68c | 33.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Atlanta Braves | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9931backed Minnesota Twins | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Atlanta Braves | 66c | 21.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4816…ee65backed Atlanta Braves | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.