Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Mensik (-1.5) vs Popyrin (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46a7d2f2fb33916555fc1acf46a181cf719695ceb4ec1b97fcd40f05724159a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Popyrinof Mensik, Popyrin
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,548
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Popyrin | 49c | 1,660$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.64 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…4687backed Mensik | 51c | 1,371$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 373 | 51.2%191 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f9…9419backed Mensik | 47c | 999.58$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.28 | 308 | 27.6%85 W · 223 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed Mensik | 24c | 538.06$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.47 | 609 | 43.3%264 W · 345 L | -24.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Mensik | 51c | 507.45$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.8 | 651 | 57.1%372 W · 279 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb002…103dbacked Popyrin | 53c | 350$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.5 | 368 | 52.7%194 W · 174 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Popyrin | 51c | 294.55$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.86 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e9…1c08backed Popyrin | 54c | 224.62$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.33 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | -14.6wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -21%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Mensik | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…0c11backed Mensik | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 681 | 57.6%392 W · 289 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeca…41f0backed Popyrin | 53c | 183.52$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked Popyrin | 56c | 178.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.35 | 848 | 57.4%487 W · 361 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a83…195bbacked Mensik | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 59cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed Popyrin | 49c | 102.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…a5d5backed Popyrin | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 196 | 57.1%112 W · 84 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Mensik | 51c | 78.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Popyrin | 49c | 72.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa590…271cbacked Popyrin | 74c | 70.56$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Popyrin | 52c | 62.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Mensik | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 324 | 48.1%156 W · 168 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Popyrin | 53c | 57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55af…8407backed Popyrin | 53c | 52.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 97 | 43.3%42 W · 55 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…38d5backed Popyrin | 75c | 37.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +9.1wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Popyrin | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Mensik | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Popyrin | 53c | 23.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Popyrin | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Mensik (-1.5) vs Popyrin (+1.5)this page
- Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexei Popyrin vs Jakub MensikAlexei Popyrin won
- Popyrin vs. Mensik: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Popyrin vs MensikPopyrin won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.