Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Solana dip to $205 September 8–14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46b80dbab196ea79839ca3fa586288fe5b229ea11fe85dff73639e3dea4eb712
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2adf…d89cbacked No | 70c | 7,705$5,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,323.47 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +16.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…dca3backed Yes | 23c | 6,538$1,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,522.18 | 291 | 26.5%77 W · 214 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 33c | 4,250$1,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,397.84 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…f8bbbacked Yes | 4c | 3,551$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.4 | 119 | 8.4%10 W · 109 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes | 24c | 2,524$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.37 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…0371backed No | 73c | 2,404$1,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.4 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,722$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Yes | 31c | 1,717$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.29 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…92e7backed Yes | 50c | 1,375$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.2 | 325 | 24.3%79 W · 246 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 94 | 0%0 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 18c | 763$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.06 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd0…a0a1backed No | 67c | 760$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.7 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…c177backed Yes | 27c | 697.53$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.33 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf252…8208backed No | 80c | 383.75$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…51a5backed Yes | 24c | 159.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 24cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 30c | 85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc9…1b56backed No | 66c | 45.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -41%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9a…ed80backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Solana dip to $205 September 8–14?this page
- Will Solana dip to $145 September 8–14?No won
- Will Solana dip to $155 September 8–14?No won
- Will Solana dip to $165 September 8–14?No won
- Will Solana dip to $175 September 8–14?No won
- Will Solana dip to $185 September 8–14?No won
- Will Solana dip to $195 September 8–14?No won
- Will Solana reach $220 September 8–14?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $230 September 8–14?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $240 September 8–14?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $250 September 8–14?No won
- Will Solana reach $260 September 8–14?No won
- Will Solana reach $270 September 8–14?No won
- Will Solana reach $280 September 8–14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.