Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46bdefd33f18092a011f1ca66ddf1258929b91cea59bdd36751892f0538d6056
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Team Vitality, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,728
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Natus Vincere | 69c | 6,075$4,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,883.4 | 1,224 | 48.3%591 W · 633 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1047…9036backed Team Vitality | 31c | 6,000$1,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,860 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5822…8774backed Team Vitality | 19c | 3,463$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.92 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Natus Vincere | 70c | 3,000$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.98 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…5934backed Team Vitality | 25c | 1,084$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.69 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Team Vitality | 24c | 875.83$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.44 | 144 | 41.7%60 W · 84 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…f04ebacked Natus Vincere | 78c | 819.84$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.65 | 225 | 65.3%147 W · 78 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf6…f90ebacked Team Vitality | 30c | 556.93$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.04 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Natus Vincere | 76c | 530.88$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.5 | 1,181 | 66%780 W · 401 L | +70.1wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3724…69b5backed Team Vitality | 30c | 430$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 142 | 47.9%68 W · 74 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Natus Vincere | 64c | 391.83$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.01 | 2,984 | 44.5%1,329 W · 1,655 L | -94.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Team Vitality | 36c | 344.9$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.1 | 2,367 | 31.9%756 W · 1,611 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…2d13backed Team Vitality | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 519 | 52.4%272 W · 247 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed4…f891backed Team Vitality | 32c | 265.69$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 512 | 47.3%242 W · 270 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked Team Vitality | 30c | 240$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 356 | 42.4%151 W · 205 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Team Vitality | 30c | 224$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 560 | 34.8%195 W · 365 L | -14.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…11c0backed Team Vitality | 34c | 199.97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0f…3656backed Natus Vincere | 71c | 192.96$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.96 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6daa…954abacked Team Vitality | 30c | 184.1$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Team Vitality | 33c | 176.36$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.38 | 300 | 49.7%149 W · 151 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf3…d220backed Team Vitality | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +9.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98ba…4212backed Team Vitality | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc22a…8259backed Team Vitality | 30c | 164.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 383 | 44.6%171 W · 212 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Team Vitality | 34c | 132.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 1,616 | 43.8%708 W · 908 L | -74.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Natus Vincere | 79c | 120.84$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 1,004 | 54.5%547 W · 457 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Team Vitality | 29c | 118.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 1,143 | 30.8%352 W · 791 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1c…e369backed Team Vitality | 30c | 116.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 215 | 46%99 W · 116 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b95…b23ebacked Team Vitality | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,049 | 44.6%468 W · 581 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked Team Vitality | 55c | 90.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 239 | 48.1%115 W · 124 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…cba4backed Natus Vincere | 54c | 90.52$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd215…1c8ebacked Team Vitality | 30c | 89.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7786…c005backed Natus Vincere | 71c | 83.45$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 227 | 37%84 W · 143 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb35c…33c8backed Team Vitality | 61c | 81.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4223…42c7backed Team Vitality | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Team Vitality | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 813 | 33%268 W · 545 L | -43.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Team Vitality | 24c | 48.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1,608 | 17.5%282 W · 1,326 L | -245.3wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3546…1a58backed Team Vitality | 26c | 48.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 161 | 30.4%49 W · 112 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a0…2dc3backed Team Vitality | 26c | 48.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 109 | 30.3%33 W · 76 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2606…64b5backed Team Vitality | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…226ebacked Natus Vincere | 54c | 47.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 562 | 28.6%161 W · 401 L | -32.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Natus Vincere | 71c | 41.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 2,540 | 39.7%1,009 W · 1,531 L | -79.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed Team Vitality | 30c | 41.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 2,178 | 53.4%1,164 W · 1,014 L | +61.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb7…e9dbbacked Team Vitality | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5777…f1a7backed Natus Vincere | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 261 | 49%128 W · 133 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Natus Vincere | 43c | 25.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 202 | 39.6%80 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- LoL: Team Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular SeasonTeam Vitality won
- LoL: Team Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 WinnerTeam Vitality won
- LoL: Team Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.