MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46db9fe2b5550e8e353d54222b87b5b9391f50e6f95a496a15e815d1401a85fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Rockiesof Philadelphia Phillies, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Colorado Rockies | 51c | 2,541$1,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245.26 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Philadelphia Phillies | 22c | 1,142$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.35 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e2…8a9bbacked Colorado Rockies | 52c | 1,122$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.04 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…0d62backed Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 613.29$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 416.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.1 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 363.98$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.71 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 250.98$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.98 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…45e5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 51c | 228.38$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.47 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Colorado Rockies | 74c | 228.26$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.69 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 206.73$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.36 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Colorado Rockies | 49c | 197.84$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.9 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 158.27$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.72 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 144.78$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 122.22$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.11 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe46d…8b87backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 98.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 20c | 86.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 22c | 82.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 59.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Colorado Rockies | 50c | 58.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 467 | 59.7%279 W · 188 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Philadelphia Phillies | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Colorado Rockies | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 45.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 326 | 47.9%156 W · 170 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Colorado Rockies | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bf…8ec8backed Colorado Rockies | 50c | 38.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 38.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 963 | 49%472 W · 491 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7b…aec1backed Colorado Rockies | 77c | 29.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65f6…8333backed Philadelphia Phillies | 51c | 29.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Colorado Rockies | 50c | 27.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…678cbacked Colorado Rockies | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Colorado Rockies | 67c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Colorado Rockies | 50c | 20.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Colorado Rockies | 75c | 18.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Colorado Rockies | 75c | 18.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.