Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x472004426f3f0cf1917cbb9aa9d7258a0afb2853e32d8bb4a435e2ebcb7e141e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,632 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 25c | 6,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.99 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 80c | 5,915$4,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200.75 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 75c | 4,453$3,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.64 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 21c | 3,219$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.09 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Yes | 19c | 2,211$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86f4…40d5backed No | 69c | 2,000$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 75c | 1,860$1,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.85 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 61c | 1,171$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.95 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 32c | 1,089$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.6 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Yes | 16c | 882.06$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…6dd0backed Yes | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…b6a5backed Yes | 23c | 695$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.35 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +5.7wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 29c | 623.08$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.98 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 68c | 335.3$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.78 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4db3…c1eabacked Yes | 27c | 322.41$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed No | 68c | 224.97$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Yes | 24c | 221.76$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 113 | 56.6%64 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed No | 76c | 219.14$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1002…1ef5backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 24c | 179.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 70c | 175.41$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.31 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffff…4413backed No | 79c | 149.7$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 121 | 41.3%50 W · 71 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aee…bddfbacked Yes | 32c | 144.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed No | 48c | 137.54$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.52 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Yes | 53c | 106$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…bd4abacked No | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…cb95backed Yes | 38c | 92.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…9eedbacked Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 31c | 81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed Yes | 32c | 65.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 25c | 63.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x464c…4632backed Yes | 25c | 63.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…e889backed Yes | 30c | 61.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc4…a36fbacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…abcbbacked No | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…9f10backed No | 69c | 57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 51c | 55.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51e5…da69backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf87…cc46backed Yes | 24c | 48.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Yes | 32c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c4…7c65backed No | 67c | 47.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -6.3wins | -0.14per pick | 70cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 28c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb196…33d5backed Yes | 31c | 36.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Yes | 34c | 35.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3d…fd74backed No | 75c | 33.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71fe…6a3abacked Yes | 31c | 32.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 151 | 60.9%92 W · 59 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 66c | 16.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw?this page
- Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-03-22?No won
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-03-22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.