Mls · resolved market
Will Orlando City win the MLS Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x474a6d6c61302fe4c2466c6f77b82b474c2cfd310751c6aa8f1b6e600113c48c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd2d6…dde8backed Yes | 0c | 6,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 13c | 1,394$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.63 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed Yes | 30c | 1,250$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 14c | 355.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c9…3c74backed Yes | 14c | 354.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Yes | 14c | 310$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.29per pick | 48cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 26c | 248.68$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.57 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25cc…3601backed Yes | 27c | 195$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked Yes | 51c | 150$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf7…ef5fbacked Yes | 31c | 90.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb857…a6aabacked No | 70c | 90.31$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46c…f641backed No | 49c | 89.93$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b07…3e1abacked Yes | 16c | 85.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 15c | 77.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Orlando City win the MLS Cup?this page
- Will Atlanta United win the 2024 MLS Cup?No won
- Will Charlotte FC win the 2024 MLS Cup?No won
- Will Columbus Crew win the MLS Cup?No won
- Will FC Cincinnati win the MLS Cup?No won
- Will LA Galaxy win the MLS Cup?Yes won
- Will Los Angeles FC win the MLS Cup?No won
- Will Minnesota United win the 2024 MLS Cup?No won
- Will New York City FC win the MLS Cup?No won
- Will Real Salt Lake win the MLS Cup?No won
- Will the Houston Dynamo win the MLS Cup?No won
- Will the Inter Miami win the 2024 MLS Cup?No won
- Will the New York Red Bulls win the 2024 MLS Cup?No won
- Will the Portland Timbers win the 2024 MLS Cup?No won
- Will the Seattle Sounders win the MLS Cup?No won
- Will the Vancouver Whitecaps win the 2024 MLS Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.