CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: paiN.A (-1.5) vs Guara Esports (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4768f7bfb62f25b1de6b19691c5b56cff83a7b717cefc27999ff39cea22d9909
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- paiN Academyof paiN Academy, Guara Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,638
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,638 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xddc3…029cbacked paiN Academy | 57c | 3,629$2,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,566.56 | 924 | 56.8%525 W · 399 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Guara Esports | 43c | 1,830$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.51 | 552 | 36.2%200 W · 352 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked paiN Academy | 53c | 1,626$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.57 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd72e…c7d2backed Guara Esports | 43c | 802.33$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -4.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…4b1dbacked Guara Esports | 41c | 622.16$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.59 | 341 | 40.8%139 W · 202 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa57e…ed54backed Guara Esports | 44c | 525.59$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…0e12backed Guara Esports | 47c | 415.72$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.86 | 550 | 39.6%218 W · 332 L | -20.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked paiN Academy | 58c | 367.01$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.14 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…5685backed Guara Esports | 43c | 363.9$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.48 | 312 | 41.3%129 W · 183 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked Guara Esports | 47c | 323.06$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.87 | 388 | 44.3%172 W · 216 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Guara Esports | 48c | 311.84$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.68 | 193 | 51.3%99 W · 94 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Guara Esports | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 499 | 35.1%175 W · 324 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed paiN Academy | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 991 | 48.3%479 W · 512 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…9ef7backed Guara Esports | 43c | 299.98$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.99 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe04…1481backed Guara Esports | 43c | 272.09$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Guara Esports | 44c | 191.61$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.54 | 1,033 | 53.2%550 W · 483 L | +64.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed paiN Academy | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked paiN Academy | 61c | 169.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.45 | 489 | 48.9%239 W · 250 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fdb…0d6fbacked Guara Esports | 15c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 116 | 39.7%46 W · 70 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeebb…0b96backed Guara Esports | 43c | 130.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 358 | 39.4%141 W · 217 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b0…b4d1backed paiN Academy | 57c | 120$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Guara Esports | 45c | 112.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 349 | 43%150 W · 199 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Guara Esports | 44c | 106.4$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 513 | 48.3%248 W · 265 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d08…5d9fbacked Guara Esports | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Guara Esports | 44c | 88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 170 | 38.8%66 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f16…284ebacked paiN Academy | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 58 | 82.8%48 W · 10 L | +10.2wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed paiN Academy | 54c | 58.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…186dbacked Guara Esports | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 359 | 47.9%172 W · 187 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedcc…41a1backed paiN Academy | 58c | 44.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 219 | 53.4%117 W · 102 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Guara Esports | 42c | 42.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 491 | 49.9%245 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Guara Esports | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 256 | 43.4%111 W · 145 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed paiN Academy | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c62…ca89backed paiN Academy | 49c | 29.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: paiN.A (-1.5) vs Guara Esports (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs Guara Esports (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group StagepaiN Academy won
- Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs Guara Esports - Map 1 WinnerpaiN Academy won
- Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs Guara Esports - Map 2 WinnerpaiN Academy won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.