CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Vitalem Aerem vs Just Swing (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia Cup #1 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47beb4dae3a2c14d835c8aa6f07274bc52f2500a7679711a162c65c9984a8587
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Just Swingof Vitalem Aerem, Just Swing
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Vitalem Aerem | 42c | 1,736$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.68 | 5,194 | 55.2%2,869 W · 2,325 L | +131.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…ce32backed Just Swing | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…7217backed Vitalem Aerem | 43c | 917.48$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.51 | 1,710 | 53.2%909 W · 801 L | +65.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9527…888bbacked Vitalem Aerem | 10c | 558.64$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4378…1bdebacked Just Swing | 57c | 436.55$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.33 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4212…f0d3backed Just Swing | 57c | 423.69$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8e…0c69backed Vitalem Aerem | 27c | 369.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 337 | 37.7%127 W · 210 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Just Swing | 63c | 315.87$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.87 | 138 | 69.6%96 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e4…dd38backed Just Swing | 72c | 249.29$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.45 | 517 | 56.3%291 W · 226 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe18d…9c5bbacked Just Swing | 58c | 191.28$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.34 | 164 | 51.8%85 W · 79 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked Just Swing | 64c | 187.03$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.84 | 1,598 | 51.6%824 W · 774 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Just Swing | 56c | 185$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.23 | 1,184 | 48%568 W · 616 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02cf…813cbacked Just Swing | 58c | 180.14$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.26 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Vitalem Aerem | 42c | 175.14$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.56 | 2,071 | 54%1,119 W · 952 L | +14.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…88f9backed Vitalem Aerem | 36c | 122$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 521 | 55.1%287 W · 234 L | +17.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Vitalem Aerem | 18c | 116.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 4,165 | 50.9%2,119 W · 2,046 L | +70.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Just Swing | 71c | 112.51$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Just Swing | 61c | 95.6$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 5,707 | 47.2%2,694 W · 3,013 L | +45.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08e0…f4a0backed Vitalem Aerem | 45c | 88.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 870 | 55.9%486 W · 384 L | +32.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…7c12backed Just Swing | 67c | 79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 554 | 69.1%383 W · 171 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x336a…1915backed Just Swing | 58c | 78.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…d11bbacked Just Swing | 60c | 75.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Vitalem Aerem | 43c | 71.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 135 | 67.4%91 W · 44 L | +19.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7f38…13c8backed Just Swing | 58c | 71.48$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Just Swing | 60c | 65.74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 1,496 | 52.9%791 W · 705 L | +30.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5c…1cf7backed Just Swing | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3994…ff63backed Vitalem Aerem | 29c | 58.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Just Swing | 55c | 52.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 209 | 45.5%95 W · 114 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Just Swing | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 120 | 41.7%50 W · 70 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2c…f5bebacked Vitalem Aerem | 35c | 49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Just Swing | 58c | 48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 1,279 | 54.3%694 W · 585 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb434…10d7backed Vitalem Aerem | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Just Swing | 72c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 312 | 47.8%149 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767e…98cabacked Just Swing | 58c | 41.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2d…b69dbacked Vitalem Aerem | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 229 | 63.3%145 W · 84 L | +23.9wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2793backed Just Swing | 77c | 32.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Just Swing | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 456 | 63.8%291 W · 165 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa005…abb1backed Vitalem Aerem | 43c | 27.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 239 | 52.7%126 W · 113 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf117…8aa8backed Just Swing | 57c | 25.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed Just Swing | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3211…9ee3backed Just Swing | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 214 | 52.3%112 W · 102 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Just Swing | 71c | 14.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 718 | 42.3%304 W · 414 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Vitalem Aerem vs Just Swing (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia Cup #1 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: Vitalem Aerem vs Just Swing - Map 1 WinnerJust Swing won
- Counter-Strike: Vitalem Aerem vs Just Swing - Map 2 WinnerJust Swing won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.