Tennis · resolved market
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Andrey Rublev vs Yoshihito Nishioka
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47cc6bcd507edc18a278a7c5942ac919df8a6f24599f0fba64ae9f884353d3de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nishiokaof Rublev, Nishioka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b9b…211dbacked Rublev | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Nishioka | 25c | 1,646$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,234.73 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Nishioka | 43c | 800$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.97 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Rublev | 75c | 435$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.2 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Nishioka | 26c | 400$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Rublev | 72c | 385.06$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.56 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Nishioka | 36c | 385$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.45 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Nishioka | 21c | 351.49$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.68 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nishioka | 46c | 323.24$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.66 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a1…1485backed Nishioka | 34c | 312.04$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.04 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf671…3dd7backed Nishioka | 12c | 275$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e67…91b0backed Rublev | 13c | 240$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed Rublev | 33c | 230.3$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Nishioka | 21c | 199.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.91 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Rublev | 61c | 188.3$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.38 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Nishioka | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Rublev | 79c | 127.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Nishioka | 43c | 126.32$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.91 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Nishioka | 34c | 124.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.27 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8004…8125backed Rublev | 79c | 112.37$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.77 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Rublev | 34c | 102.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Rublev | 77c | 102$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.03 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Rublev | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Nishioka | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Rublev | 76c | 97$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.72 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Rublev | 74c | 76.92$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.92 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Rublev | 67c | 63.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Nishioka | 22c | 54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…141cbacked Nishioka | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Rublev | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49c…773ebacked Rublev | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2f…66b2backed Rublev | 72c | 23.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.