Tennis · resolved market
Qatar Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Arthur Rinderknech
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47ed04c13a0260c62bd8f668dd98553f1241f6ab16e5718b8752c413074f4c93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alcarazof Alcaraz, Rinderknech
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $408,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $444,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $408,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Rinderknech | 4c | 60,000$2,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,166.09 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Rinderknech | 3c | 21,180$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.12 | 1,683 | 50.6%851 W · 832 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Rinderknech | 4c | 20,427$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.75 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d58…1aeabacked Rinderknech | 4c | 11,224$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.21 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rinderknech | 4c | 9,952$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.11 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Rinderknech | 4c | 8,860$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.9 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x153a…9d6dbacked Rinderknech | 4c | 8,809$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.11 | 284 | 39.1%111 W · 173 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Rinderknech | 2c | 7,194$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.89 | 6,792 | 36.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Rinderknech | 4c | 5,975$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.34 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f35…95dabacked Rinderknech | 4c | 3,784$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.58 | 465 | 44.3%206 W · 259 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Rinderknech | 3c | 2,749$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Rinderknech | 4c | 2,400$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.33 | 1,437 | 28.5%409 W · 1,028 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…f66ebacked Rinderknech | 4c | 2,160$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +85%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Rinderknech | 7c | 1,856$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.33 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Rinderknech | 3c | 1,513$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d4…8b32backed Rinderknech | 2c | 1,491$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 1,207 | 8%96 W · 1,111 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Rinderknech | 5c | 1,398$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.93 | 407 | 44%179 W · 228 L | -14.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x903b…e84fbacked Rinderknech | 4c | 1,387$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Rinderknech | 4c | 1,369$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.03 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Rinderknech | 4c | 1,227$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 248 | 37.1%92 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rinderknech | 6c | 1,189$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.89 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Rinderknech | 4c | 983.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 6,840 | 48.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L | +58.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0866…a1d5backed Rinderknech | 3c | 768.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 163 | 39.3%64 W · 99 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b07…96febacked Rinderknech | 6c | 750.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Rinderknech | 4c | 683.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 813 | 49.1%399 W · 414 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf95a…d895backed Rinderknech | 3c | 673.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 189 | 32.3%61 W · 128 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Rinderknech | 2c | 619.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1,381 | 16.4%227 W · 1,154 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Rinderknech | 3c | 600$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2294…4cd3backed Rinderknech | 4c | 530$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…ed22backed Rinderknech | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 184 | 47.3%87 W · 97 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…7967backed Rinderknech | 4c | 481.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 123 | 22%27 W · 96 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Rinderknech | 4c | 481.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Rinderknech | 4c | 411.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 1,980 | 46.2%915 W · 1,065 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…61b4backed Rinderknech | 5c | 408.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 375 | 44.3%166 W · 209 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Rinderknech | 4c | 351.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 659 | 49.3%325 W · 334 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed Rinderknech | 6c | 292.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Rinderknech | 11c | 220.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 678 | 36%244 W · 434 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Rinderknech | 6c | 203.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 6,652 | 50.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L | +263.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee9…1362backed Rinderknech | 7c | 172.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 725 | 42.6%309 W · 416 L | -20.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa519…2cc1backed Rinderknech | 9c | 144.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Qatar Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Arthur Rinderknechthis page
- Alcaraz vs. Rinderknech: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Rinderknech: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Rinderknech: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs RinderknechAlcaraz won
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Rinderknech (+1.5)Alcaraz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.