MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x481afb5e82a4f6d6c4eb1a36f05dc0ee07280563fd8dabdb1341749988a174ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Washington Nationals, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 40c | 8,033$3,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,819.85 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Colorado Rockies | 60c | 7,987$4,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,790.65 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Colorado Rockies | 71c | 1,050$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.07 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d4…69a9backed Washington Nationals | 29c | 1,038$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.93 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Colorado Rockies | 61c | 316.44$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.03 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 127.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.81 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a96…b71dbacked Washington Nationals | 39c | 100.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.31 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d90…bcd6backed Washington Nationals | 31c | 97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.16 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Colorado Rockies | 73c | 96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.93 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Washington Nationals | 57c | 61.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…a79abacked Washington Nationals | 34c | 50.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb15e…7c54backed Colorado Rockies | 40c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Colorado Rockies | 72c | 32.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…5ed1backed Colorado Rockies | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 242 | 63.6%154 W · 88 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Colorado RockiesWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Colorado RockiesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.