MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8c9796f11c7345b0d6660573d4d3aad19535b6ffd5ec995115c835e5d2bf127
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $189,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $189,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $189,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 71c | 117,028$83,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,958.8 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 29c | 99,957$29,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,002.5 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 42c | 53,899$22,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,261.42 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 29,220$14,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,160.24 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Over | 58c | 9,999$5,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,799.42 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.8wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +28%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 41c | 9,820$4,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,033.03 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 58c | 5,100$2,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,958 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 58c | 4,096$2,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,374.65 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 29c | 3,169$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.04 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 58c | 2,273$1,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.58 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 54c | 1,932$1,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.48 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 49c | 1,804$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.2 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 46c | 1,599$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.44 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 58c | 1,024$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.92 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 58c | 829.96$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.86 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Under | 38c | 566$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.92 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 58c | 547.5$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.55 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 46c | 471$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.66 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 58c | 439.71$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.03 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 58c | 379.32$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Over | 58c | 322$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.76 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 58c | 233$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.14 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 46c | 206.41$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.95 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 46c | 200.21$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.81 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 56c | 149.98$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 71c | 120.55$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked Under | 43c | 117$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.69 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed Over | 56c | 99.34$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.77 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 49c | 91.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 57c | 89.02$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.11 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 26c | 89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Over | 43c | 81.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcec8…4bedbacked Over | 42c | 77.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14fc…d8f4backed Over | 42c | 77.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b33…d653backed Over | 42c | 77.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 22c | 65.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 53c | 61.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Over | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 74c | 48.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ca…0d75backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8f47backed Under | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8249…9169backed Over | 38c | 31.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 58c | 25.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 390 | 53.6%209 W · 181 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 59c | 23.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2461…3eefbacked Over | 59c | 21.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 58c | 17.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5this page
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Colorado RockiesWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Colorado RockiesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.