MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c194537a7fb54bf7240f483d05b8f8f1cfb0e8f5f8cd72c237d3dcd87ef41c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $128,213
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $129,339
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,213 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 51c | 100,000$51,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,999.92 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 49c | 35,616$17,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,451.65 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 49c | 18,923$9,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,272.27 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Over | 49c | 12,030$5,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,894.84 | 291 | 47.1%137 W · 154 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 10,697$5,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,238.28 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Under | 51c | 10,000$5,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,889.12 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbd…d6f0backed Over | 49c | 5,369$2,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,630.81 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 48c | 4,902$2,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,353.16 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 51c | 4,902$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 50c | 1,800$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc57…2b3cbacked Over | 49c | 1,429$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 49c | 1,428$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.72 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 51c | 1,365$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.85 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 50c | 1,118$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.23 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 52c | 1,046$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.97 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…d241backed Over | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 71c | 982.68$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.62 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 49c | 935.69$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.49 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 14c | 693.88$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Under | 50c | 660.05$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.03 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 49c | 581$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.69 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -11.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 48c | 491$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.68 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa68…94a7backed Over | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…e3a8backed Over | 49c | 360$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.4 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 49c | 298$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.99 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…6b1ebacked Over | 49c | 255.1$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 50c | 248.77$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.48 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 53c | 236.03$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.03 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 52c | 221.15$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.15 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed Over | 49c | 204.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 145 | 59.3%86 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 11c | 196.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 50c | 193$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.5 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6feb…c082backed Over | 49c | 190$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.1 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…932fbacked Over | 49c | 179.94$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.91 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Over | 49c | 154.63$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.77 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 49c | 154$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.46 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 37c | 144$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 51c | 140$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.6 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…b370backed Over | 50c | 139.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.69 | 195 | 55.9%109 W · 86 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 49c | 130$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Over | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Over | 49c | 120$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 416 | 37.5%156 W · 260 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…af18backed Under | 52c | 112.7$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.1 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd9…8593backed Over | 50c | 109.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 48c | 92.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4bb…22a9backed Over | 49c | 86.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 48c | 86.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc11d…0123backed Over | 49c | 79.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 13c | 77.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 25c | 69.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 72c | 65.68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 48c | 65.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab5…95fabacked Over | 49c | 64.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…5043backed Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 49c | 55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09cd…9502backed Over | 49c | 54.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 53c | 49.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 49c | 49.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Over | 49c | 44.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe650…0944backed Over | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc085…c837backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 152 | 50.7%77 W · 75 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…a79abacked Over | 44c | 39.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1f…a7d2backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04c7…2d60backed Over | 49c | 36.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 35c | 35.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 75c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 49c | 31.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8c…dc39backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8f47backed Under | 52c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…7ac4backed Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3443…64e9backed Under | 72c | 27.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 70 | 80%56 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Under | 50c | 25.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Under | 52c | 24.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 229 | 48%110 W · 119 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 79c | 19.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 73c | 18.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5this page
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Colorado RockiesWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Colorado RockiesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.