MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cb2b7d805ee2888ee4ec9ca374605b7a5488b4f94780c318c1c689104999dc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Washington Nationals, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,475
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,475 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Colorado Rockies | 48c | 5,717$2,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,746.64 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Washington Nationals | 49c | 2,984$1,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,532.02 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 55c | 2,284$1,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.58 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Colorado Rockies | 53c | 1,699$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.67 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Washington Nationals | 47c | 1,484$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.52 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 1,460$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.8 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Colorado Rockies | 53c | 1,100$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.36 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 1,026$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.64 | 1,215 | 40.5%492 W · 723 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Colorado Rockies | 61c | 899.32$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.59 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Washington Nationals | 48c | 726.55$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.81 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Washington Nationals | 48c | 726.55$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.81 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Colorado Rockies | 46c | 411.11$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.77 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 389.84$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.61 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Colorado Rockies | 38c | 299$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.62 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Colorado Rockies | 54c | 268.43$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.95 | 179 | 61.5%110 W · 69 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 224.01$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.66 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Washington Nationals | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Colorado Rockies | 52c | 200.74$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.39 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 148.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.94 | 448 | 45.8%205 W · 243 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…5976backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 123.06$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.22 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Colorado Rockies | 52c | 120$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 965 | 53%511 W · 454 L | +18.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Washington Nationals | 70c | 100.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Colorado Rockies | 52c | 78.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912f…b25bbacked Colorado Rockies | 53c | 73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Colorado Rockies | 30c | 59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Washington Nationals | 48c | 57.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 2,044 | 39.5%808 W · 1,236 L | -24.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Colorado Rockies | 52c | 57.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Colorado Rockies | 63c | 37.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Colorado Rockies | 62c | 33.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Washington Nationals | 47c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Colorado Rockies | 52c | 26.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 425 | 48.2%205 W · 220 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb15e…7c54backed Colorado Rockies | 48c | 23.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b33…d653backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 20.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14fc…d8f4backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 20.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec8…4bedbacked Washington Nationals | 57c | 20.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Washington Nationals | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Colorado RockiesWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Colorado RockiesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.