Tennis · resolved market
Kingston 2: Aidan Mayo vs Matthew Forbes
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x481d1a2b20d45e13c721a21b4afc91c9ae0bcbde4da2f5d21181ee1aa3134972
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aidan Mayoof Aidan Mayo, Matthew Forbes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Aidan Mayo | 78c | 2,814$2,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.16 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Matthew Forbes | 20c | 2,132$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.31 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Matthew Forbes | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Matthew Forbes | 35c | 627.29$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.5 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…ef3dbacked Matthew Forbes | 31c | 572.31$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.01 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Matthew Forbes | 13c | 403.5$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Matthew Forbes | 27c | 400$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.75 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Aidan Mayo | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 883 | 58.2%514 W · 369 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f17…0724backed Matthew Forbes | 25c | 282.34$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.91 | 702 | 54.4%382 W · 320 L | +40.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…b795backed Aidan Mayo | 71c | 196.09$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.7 | 541 | 41.4%224 W · 317 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Matthew Forbes | 22c | 171.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04c7…c7a7backed Matthew Forbes | 35c | 137.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 185 | 51.4%95 W · 90 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Aidan Mayo | 80c | 99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…b694backed Matthew Forbes | 23c | 95.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1,429 | 44.2%631 W · 798 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Aidan Mayo | 80c | 80.86$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc6…1cedbacked Matthew Forbes | 15c | 78.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Aidan Mayo | 65c | 73.38$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Aidan Mayo | 65c | 71.91$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…f972backed Matthew Forbes | 36c | 55.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Aidan Mayo | 63c | 54.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2484…5c15backed Aidan Mayo | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…ac54backed Matthew Forbes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Aidan Mayo | 62c | 30.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa678…dd59backed Aidan Mayo | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 108 | 55.6%60 W · 48 L | -7.3wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Matthew Forbes | 35c | 30.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…2ed6backed Aidan Mayo | 65c | 30.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -6.2wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…016abacked Aidan Mayo | 67c | 27.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 370 | 58.4%216 W · 154 L | -17.8wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Aidan Mayo | 61c | 25.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 2,044 | 53.8%1,100 W · 944 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8102…c618backed Aidan Mayo | 58c | 22.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 128 | 60.2%77 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.