Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4834e86bc8e0a5cfb9a7a6770a92ca97dff4209a6562f50a872096e9c2d709dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 399.85$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.34 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 263.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.97 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 43c | 201.29$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.02 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 79c | 190.71$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 171.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 46c | 162.52$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.06 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 26c | 142.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 62c | 134.82$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.89 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 44c | 126.3$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 107.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 60c | 101$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 66c | 98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 27c | 96.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 63c | 95.4$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 71c | 91.65$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 53c | 87.12$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 61c | 86.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 25c | 69.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 54c | 67.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 26c | 64.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 19c | 63.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 52c | 62.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 40c | 61.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 71c | 61.41$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 33c | 56.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 23c | 56.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 33c | 47.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 34c | 38.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 67c | 38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 75c | 37.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 56c | 33.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 78c | 28.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 26.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 54c | 25.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 50c | 24.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 72c | 20.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 61c | 19.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 18.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 66c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 66c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 65c | 15.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd6…1b08backed No | 74c | 14.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 73°F or below on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on July 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.